442
FXUS63 KJKL 101847
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
247 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY, AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY TO
WEDNESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL FROM THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING THROUGH THE 70S WHILE DEW POINTS LAG BACK IN THE 20S FAR
EAST TO LOW/MID 40S BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND AREAS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS
TO NUDGE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THAT RH VALUES ARE DROPPING TO
CRITICAL LEVELS, COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS AND BREEZY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON, A FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK, WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED EXCEPT TO UPDATE
THE LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY OUTRUN THE
FRONT AND THUS STALL ITS MOVEMENT SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, AND DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH, THUS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS WERE
ADDED TONIGHT, BUT VALLEYS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS,
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE 50S. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND THE COLD
FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA, EXPECTED COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S NORTH, BUT UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES NEARER TO THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A DRY WARM FRONT, ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES, IS
PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY RISING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A STRONG LLJ. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S SUPPORTED BY ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
WHILE LREF WIND PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHT THE BLUEGRASS AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL GUSTS, A STOUT
INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SETTLE JUST BELOW THE STRONGEST MOMENTUM.
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT MIXING MECHANISM TO OVERCOME THIS STABLE
LAYER, SURFACE GUSTS MAY REMAIN LIMITED. CONSEQUENTLY, SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE WARM WITH A STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH CONDITIONS REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AS IT
NEARS THE AREA. DESPITE THIS WEAKENING TREND, SUFFICIENT FORCING
REMAINS TO MAINTAIN A 15 TO 20% POP BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE BOUNDARY DECAYS AND EVENTUALLY
STALLS, IT WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET FOLLOWING THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE; HOWEVER, WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT LONGER-LIVED
UPDRAFTS, MOST WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY, APPEARING
MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF JULY THAN MID-APRIL. OVERALL, THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS HIGHLIGHTED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DAILY
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EACH EVENING, ONLY TO UNDERGO
DIURNAL RENEWAL THE FOLLOWING AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH HIGH THIN
CIRRUS GIVING WAY TO THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS INCREASES AFTER 06Z FROM THE NORTHWEST,
WITH THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IMPACTING IOB
AND SYM LATE IN THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT WILL VEER TO A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT ~6 KTS OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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