672
FXUS63 KJKL 101959
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY, AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY TO
WEDNESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL FROM THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
ANOTHER FAIR AND VERY DRY AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WHILE DEW POINTS
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE FAR EAST TO THE MID 40S IN THE WEST,
YIELDING A NOTABLE RELATIVE HUMIDITY GRADIENT FROM ~15 TO 30
PERCENT EAST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER
THE LOWLANDS NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND AND ALSO OVER THE BLUEGRASS.
THE BREEZE HAS ALSO BEEN BUSY AT TIMES AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE MOST EXPOSED SPOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BAND OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS
FROM OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
AND ON UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT AT 500 HPA, A SHALLOW
TROUGH IS PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS
ALIGNED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH, THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT. WITH NEXT TO NO INSTABILITY, AND LITTLE TO
NO FORCING, THE UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY
WILL PRIMARILY YIELD AN INCREASE IN MID TO LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD
ALSO CAUSE THE WILDFIRE DANGER TO EASE. AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ELUSIVE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL STALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE ON SATURDAY. CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND BUILDUP OF SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE, FURTHER NORTH, A POST-FRONTAL INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP A LID ON ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS.
HEIGHTS START TO RISE LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING BY
SUNSET ON SATURDAY.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, FAIR, WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WILL YIELD TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S
IN SHELTERED SOUTHERN VALLEYS TO THE 50S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. ON
SATURDAY, CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST OF US-421. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 70F IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 80F IN THE WARMEST
SPOTS NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, EXPECT FAIR SKIES
AND LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN SHELTERED
NORTHEASTERN HOLLOWS TO THE MID 50S ON MILDER RIDGES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A DRY WARM FRONT, ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES, IS
PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY RISING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A STRONG LLJ. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S SUPPORTED BY ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
WHILE LREF WIND PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHT THE BLUEGRASS AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL GUSTS, A STOUT
INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SETTLE JUST BELOW THE STRONGEST MOMENTUM.
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT MIXING MECHANISM TO OVERCOME THIS STABLE
LAYER, SURFACE GUSTS MAY REMAIN LIMITED. CONSEQUENTLY, SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE WARM WITH A STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH CONDITIONS REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AS IT
NEARS THE AREA. DESPITE THIS WEAKENING TREND, SUFFICIENT FORCING
REMAINS TO MAINTAIN A 15 TO 20% POP BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE BOUNDARY DECAYS AND EVENTUALLY
STALLS, IT WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET FOLLOWING THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE; HOWEVER, WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT LONGER-LIVED
UPDRAFTS, MOST WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY, APPEARING
MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF JULY THAN MID-APRIL. OVERALL, THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS HIGHLIGHTED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DAILY
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EACH EVENING, ONLY TO UNDERGO
DIURNAL RENEWAL THE FOLLOWING AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH HIGH THIN
CIRRUS GIVING WAY TO THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS INCREASES AFTER 06Z FROM THE NORTHWEST,
WITH THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IMPACTING IOB
AND SYM LATE IN THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT WILL VEER TO A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT ~6 KTS OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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