158
FXUS63 KJKL 111124
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
724 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. THE WARMEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OF THE COMING WEEK. NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY, ON THE WARMEST DAYS.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY,
GENERALLY OVER THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN, BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL
FROM THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE IS OUT UPDATING LATEST OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES. SKY GRIDS WERE ALSO UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVED TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
ALOFT, WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT
BEFORE REACHING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TO NEAR THE
TN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. THE
REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT MOVE QUICKLY NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE REGION.
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS AS UPPER SUPPORT EXITS EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,
LINGERING INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BURN OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DECAYS AND SURFACE HEATING INTENSIFIES. THE RESULT FOR
MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE MODERATED HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL BE SOME HELP TO LOCAL WILDLAND FIREFIGHTING
EFFORTS. ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST.
SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY DAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING UPWARDS INTO THE MID-80S WITH LOW HUMIDITY
AND STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE, THUS
RESULTING IN A RETURN OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY STAGNANT
UPPER AIR PATTERN BETWEEN PERSISTENT HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGHING OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, PUSHING SYSTEMS FROM TEXAS AND NEW
MEXICO NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY, WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. THE REGION WILL RESIDE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST IT NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD, THUS
RESULTING IN A RUN OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT ARE LIKELY
TO THREATEN DAILY RECORDS FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS THIS WEEK,
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, AND POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK IN PARTS
OF THE BIG SANDY AND UPPER KENTUCKY RIVER BASINS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW BUT WILL PERSIST EACH
DAY OF THE WEEK, GENERALLY FAVORING NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE STORM TRACK, BUT POPS REMAIN BELOW
40 PERCENT AT ANY ONE TIME FOR THE WEEK. THUS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS
SEEM POISED TO WORSEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
AS OF 1115Z THIS MORNING, LOW STRATUS HAD MADE IT TO JUST NORTH OF
A KSME-KJKL-KSJS LINE, WITH LOW-MVFR TO IFR CIGS. FORWARD PROGRESS
OF THIS LOW STRATUS DECK SEEMS TO BE SLOWING SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO, BUT WILL LIKELY STILL MAKE IT TO KJKL AND KSJS
FOR AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING. TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS LINE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
THIS LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE LOW CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY
MORNING IN A FEW RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS (BUT LIKELY NOT IMPACTING
TAF SITES).
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AT ~5
KTS OR LESS. HOWEVER, THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING AT 5 KTS OR
LESS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, WITH VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR KIOB AND KSYM TO
NEAR KSJS ALONG A DECAYING COLD FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS INCREASES AFTER 08Z FROM THE NORTH ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE STALLING FRONT, WITH THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IMPACTING IOB AND SJS. THE LOW CIGS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY BEFORE CLEARING OUT AND RETURNING BACK TO VFR
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE ~5 KTS OR LESS
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY,
BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC
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