953
FXUS63 KJKL 111731
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
131 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. THE WARMEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OF THE COMING WEEK. NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY, ON THE WARMEST DAYS.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
JUST A QUICK REFRESH TO THE FORECAST TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND TRACK WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE STRATUS
DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA CONTINUES TO ERODE. GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE IS OUT UPDATING LATEST OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES. SKY GRIDS WERE ALSO UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVED TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
ALOFT, WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT
BEFORE REACHING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TO NEAR THE
TN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. THE
REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT MOVE QUICKLY NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE REGION.
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS AS UPPER SUPPORT EXITS EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,
LINGERING INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BURN OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DECAYS AND SURFACE HEATING INTENSIFIES. THE RESULT FOR
MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE MODERATED HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL BE SOME HELP TO LOCAL WILDLAND FIREFIGHTING
EFFORTS. ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST.
SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY DAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING UPWARDS INTO THE MID-80S WITH LOW HUMIDITY
AND STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE, THUS
RESULTING IN A RETURN OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY STAGNANT
UPPER AIR PATTERN BETWEEN PERSISTENT HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGHING OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, PUSHING SYSTEMS FROM TEXAS AND NEW
MEXICO NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY, WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. THE REGION WILL RESIDE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST IT NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD, THUS
RESULTING IN A RUN OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT ARE LIKELY
TO THREATEN DAILY RECORDS FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS THIS WEEK,
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, AND POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK IN PARTS
OF THE BIG SANDY AND UPPER KENTUCKY RIVER BASINS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW BUT WILL PERSIST EACH
DAY OF THE WEEK, GENERALLY FAVORING NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE STORM TRACK, BUT POPS REMAIN BELOW
40 PERCENT AT ANY ONE TIME FOR THE WEEK. THUS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS
SEEM POISED TO WORSEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
SITES ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO RETURN TO VFR AS DIURNAL HEATING IS
CAUSING THIS MORNING'S STRATUS DECK TO ERODE. AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES, THOSE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT TO
MORE OF A FEW OR SCT CUMULUS DECK. WITH THAT BEING SAID, KJKL,
KSJS, KSYM AND KIOB WILL START TO IMPROVE TO VFR AND STAY THERE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. KSME AND KLOZ ARE STARTING TO
SEE FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING BUT CLOUD BASE IS 3,500 FEET
AND THEREFORE VFR. CLEAR SKIES ARE LARGELY ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME RADIATIONAL FOG AT KLOZ AND KSME AFTER
06Z THROUGH 13Z BEFORE JOINING THE REST OF THE VFR SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LASTLY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...VORST
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