257
FXUS63 KJKL 111923
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
323 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. BURNING
IS NOT RECOMMENDED AS FIRE BEHAVIOR COULD BECOME ERRATIC.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. THE WARMEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OF THE COMING WEEK. NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY, ON THE WARMEST DAYS.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED
WEST-TO-EAST ALONG THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE, MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, LINGERING
IN THE WAKE OF A PREVIOUS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, SUPPORTED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT. AS THIS DECK IS ERODING
THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY,
REPRESENTING THE REMNANTS OF THE PRIOR COLD FRONT, WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEAST, THE WARM FRONT
WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF
THIS PASSAGE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH,
WHERE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION, WHILE MID-TO-
UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED EARLIER. A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS ITS NORTHWARD RETREAT; HOWEVER,
HIGHER POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE PENNYROYAL WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
RESIDES. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
AREA, USHERING IN A ROBUST WAA REGIME. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG WITHIN THE HEADWATERS
OF THE KENTUCKY RIVER AND THE CUMBERLAND BASIN, THOUGH ANY FOG WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE PROGGED TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS, WITH MID-TO-UPPER 50S
COMMON IN POST-WARM FRONTAL AREAS.
SUNDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE REGION RESIDING FIRMLY WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR FOLLOWING THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS
TRANSITION WILL BE MARKED BY RISING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LLJ. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S, SUPPORTED BY ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
WHILE HREF WIND PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHT THE BLUEGRASS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL GUSTS; HOWEVER, A
SIGNIFICANT MIXING MECHANISM EXISTS TO GET THOSE WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE, SIGNIFICANT GUSTS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS, THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES,
INCREASED SURFACE WINDS, AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES RANGING
FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THIS THREAT IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER
OUTLOOK. LOCALLY, THE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ADDRESSED WITH AN
AREAWIDE SPS, AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WARM SECTOR
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL, THE PERIOD IS HIGHLIGHTED BY
DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY STAGNANT
UPPER AIR PATTERN BETWEEN PERSISTENT HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGHING OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, PUSHING SYSTEMS FROM TEXAS AND NEW
MEXICO NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY, WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. THE REGION WILL RESIDE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST IT NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD, THUS
RESULTING IN A RUN OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT ARE LIKELY
TO THREATEN DAILY RECORDS FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS THIS WEEK,
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, AND POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK IN PARTS
OF THE BIG SANDY AND UPPER KENTUCKY RIVER BASINS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW BUT WILL PERSIST EACH
DAY OF THE WEEK, GENERALLY FAVORING NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE STORM TRACK, BUT POPS REMAIN BELOW
40 PERCENT AT ANY ONE TIME FOR THE WEEK. THUS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS
SEEM POISED TO WORSEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
SITES ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO RETURN TO VFR AS DIURNAL HEATING IS
CAUSING THIS MORNING'S STRATUS DECK TO ERODE. AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES, THOSE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT TO
MORE OF A FEW OR SCT CUMULUS DECK. WITH THAT BEING SAID, KJKL,
KSJS, KSYM AND KIOB WILL START TO IMPROVE TO VFR AND STAY THERE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. KSME AND KLOZ ARE STARTING TO
SEE FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING BUT CLOUD BASE IS 3,500 FEET
AND THEREFORE VFR. CLEAR SKIES ARE LARGELY ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME RADIATIONAL FOG AT KLOZ AND KSME AFTER
06Z THROUGH 13Z BEFORE JOINING THE REST OF THE VFR SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LASTLY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...VORST
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