803
FXUS63 KJKL 120240
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1040 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. BURNING
IS NOT RECOMMENDED AS FIRE BEHAVIOR COULD BECOME ERRATIC.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. THE WARMEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OF THE COMING WEEK. NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY, ON THE WARMEST DAYS.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE ORIGINAL FORECAST, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS, THE MAIN TWEAK TO
THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD IN A MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT
OVERNIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BUMPED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN OUR
VALLEYS. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO NUDGED TOWARDS THESE
RECENT COOLER OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE KY-TN LINE;
THEREFORE, THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS
AND CLOUD COVER FOR A FEW HOURS IN THIS AREA TO BRING THE
FORECAST IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHER THAN THAT, HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE
NUDGED TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS, PARTICULARLY TO
ADJUST FOR A SLOWER DRYING TREND THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED
WEST-TO-EAST ALONG THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE, MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, LINGERING
IN THE WAKE OF A PREVIOUS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, SUPPORTED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT. AS THIS DECK IS ERODING
THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY,
REPRESENTING THE REMNANTS OF THE PRIOR COLD FRONT, WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEAST, THE WARM FRONT
WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF
THIS PASSAGE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH,
WHERE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION, WHILE MID-TO-
UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED EARLIER. A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS ITS NORTHWARD RETREAT; HOWEVER,
HIGHER POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE PENNYROYAL WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
RESIDES. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
AREA, USHERING IN A ROBUST WAA REGIME. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG WITHIN THE HEADWATERS
OF THE KENTUCKY RIVER AND THE CUMBERLAND BASIN, THOUGH ANY FOG WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE PROGGED TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS, WITH MID-TO-UPPER 50S
COMMON IN POST-WARM FRONTAL AREAS.
SUNDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE REGION RESIDING FIRMLY WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR FOLLOWING THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS
TRANSITION WILL BE MARKED BY RISING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LLJ. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S, SUPPORTED BY ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
WHILE HREF WIND PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHT THE BLUEGRASS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL GUSTS; HOWEVER, A
SIGNIFICANT MIXING MECHANISM EXISTS TO GET THOSE WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE, SIGNIFICANT GUSTS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS, THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES,
INCREASED SURFACE WINDS, AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES RANGING
FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THIS THREAT IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER
OUTLOOK. LOCALLY, THE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ADDRESSED WITH AN
AREAWIDE SPS, AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WARM SECTOR
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL, THE PERIOD IS HIGHLIGHTED BY
DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND RATHER STAGNANT
THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE BOUTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY ALLOW
FOR MEAN TROUGHING GENERALLY WEST OF THE PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF TRAVERSING SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY, WITH ANY SURFACE FRONTS LIKELY REMAINING WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST UNTIL PERHAPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR A CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, AND EVEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS AT TIMES. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH BETTER CHANCES MOVING IN BY
THURSDAY, WITH SOME BETTER FORCING CURRENTLY PREDICTED. A
SECONDARY PEAK IN POPS WILL OCCUR SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND, BUT
TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS MAKE THIS LOWER
CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY LEFTOVER CU NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO BE INCLUDED AT KLOZ AND
KSME. OTHERWISE, PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
POSSIBLE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON/FAGAN
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/FAGAN
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