529
FXUS63 KJKL 120926
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
526 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY, SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES, NEAR-RECORD WARM CONDITIONS, DRY FUELS, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED AS FIRE BEHAVIOR COULD
BECOME ERRATIC.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. THE WARMEST PERIODS WILL BE TODAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OF THIS WEEK. NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY, ON THE WARMEST DAYS.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE
FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
QUICK PRE-DAWN UPDATE ISSUED TO REFRESH HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED
ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING,
THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA, OPENING UP THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SURFACE AND NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING, THEN VEER TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MEAN THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY, SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THREATENING DAILY RECORDS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S, DRY FUELS, AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
BY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT PASSAGE.
WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, A LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY MODERATE HUMIDITY RECOVERY FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGES AND UPPER SLOPES. LOWS
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH 50S IN THE
VALLEYS.
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
WILL PUSH UPSTREAM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARD
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK
MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY, AT LEAST IN THE MORNING, WILL
LIKELY BE DISSIPATING AS IT RUNS INTO A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE OUTRUNNING
THE BETTER WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS IT ENTERS
EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH UPPER SUPPORT OUTRUNNING THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT DEPICT SOME REFORMATION OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WARM
ADVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES DEW POINTS AND PROMOTES BROAD
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM WEST TO EAST, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS ON
THIS OCCURRING IS QUITE POOR AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND RATHER STAGNANT
THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE BOUTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY ALLOW
FOR MEAN TROUGHING GENERALLY WEST OF THE PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF TRAVERSING SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY, WITH ANY SURFACE FRONTS LIKELY REMAINING WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST UNTIL PERHAPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR A CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, AND EVEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS AT TIMES. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH BETTER CHANCES MOVING IN BY
THURSDAY, WITH SOME BETTER FORCING CURRENTLY PREDICTED. A
SECONDARY PEAK IN POPS WILL OCCUR SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND, BUT
TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS MAKE THIS LOWER
CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT TAF ISSUANCE, AND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO BE INCLUDED AT KLOZ AND
KSME. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 12 KTS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT FULLY DECOUPLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING TOWARD 00Z MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN TAF SITES, AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. LLWS WILL
LIKELY BE ADDED WITH FUTURE TAF PACKAGES COVERING THE SUNDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL/CMC
AVIATION...CMC
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