117
FXUS63 KJKL 121747
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
147 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY, SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES, NEAR-RECORD WARM CONDITIONS, DRY FUELS, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED AS FIRE BEHAVIOR COULD
BECOME ERRATIC.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. THE WARMEST PERIODS WILL BE TODAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OF THIS WEEK. NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY, ON THE WARMEST DAYS.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE
FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
QUICK PRE-DAWN UPDATE ISSUED TO REFRESH HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED
ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING,
THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA, OPENING UP THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SURFACE AND NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING, THEN VEER TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MEAN THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY, SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THREATENING DAILY RECORDS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S, DRY FUELS, AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
BY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT PASSAGE.
WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, A LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY MODERATE HUMIDITY RECOVERY FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGES AND UPPER SLOPES. LOWS
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH 50S IN THE
VALLEYS.
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
WILL PUSH UPSTREAM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARD
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK
MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY, AT LEAST IN THE MORNING, WILL
LIKELY BE DISSIPATING AS IT RUNS INTO A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE OUTRUNNING
THE BETTER WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS IT ENTERS
EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH UPPER SUPPORT OUTRUNNING THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT DEPICT SOME REFORMATION OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WARM
ADVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES DEW POINTS AND PROMOTES BROAD
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM WEST TO EAST, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS ON
THIS OCCURRING IS QUITE POOR AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND RATHER STAGNANT
THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE BOUTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY ALLOW
FOR MEAN TROUGHING GENERALLY WEST OF THE PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF TRAVERSING SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY, WITH ANY SURFACE FRONTS LIKELY REMAINING WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST UNTIL PERHAPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR A CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, AND EVEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS AT TIMES. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH BETTER CHANCES MOVING IN BY
THURSDAY, WITH SOME BETTER FORCING CURRENTLY PREDICTED. A
SECONDARY PEAK IN POPS WILL OCCUR SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND, BUT
TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS MAKE THIS LOWER
CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AT THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
ALSO, FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT, CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND WINDS SLACKEN OFF A LITTLE BIT BUT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, SURFACE WINDS WILL START TO
PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN AND THEREFORE OPTED TO SHIFT AWAY FROM
LLWS SINCE ITS MORE OF A TURBULENT MIXING REGIME. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION, INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL EXISTS BUT
MAINLY AFTER 12Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ALL TERMINALS
HAVE A PROB30 FOR THIS TIMEFRAME WITH KIOB GETTING A PREVAILING
SHOWER GROUP AS THAT SITE HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SHOWER
ACTIVITY MONDAY MORNING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL/CMC
AVIATION...VORST
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