174
FXUS63 KJKL 130301
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1101 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. THE WARMEST PERIODS WILL BE TODAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OF THIS WEEK. NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY, ON THE WARMEST DAYS.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE
FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1101 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
MAIN CHANGE LATE THIS EVENING WAS TO ADD A MODEST RIDGE-VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCALES. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 4MB ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING
IN OCCASIONAL MIXING EVEN INTO THE DEEPER VALLEYS. ANTICIPATE LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F ATOP THE THERMAL BELT RIDGES. CHANCE POPS AND
THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND LAKE
CUMBERLAND AREAS BY AROUND 5 AM EDT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. THE LOWEST RAIN
CHANCES (AROUND 15 PERCENT) WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN WHILE THE HIGHEST CHANCES (NEAR 60
PERCENT) WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BLUEGRASS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
AFTER NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-SETTING WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON (JKL
SET A NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 85F), TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK
THROUGH THE 70S THIS EVENING AND INTO THE 60S AFTER SUNSET UNDER
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RISE BACK
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, REDUCING THE WILDFIRE DANGER. FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, WARRANTING NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE FORECAST AREA IS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEPARTING WARM FRONT. THIS
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA, ALLOWING WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO FILTER INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CWA REACHING
THE MID 80S. NOTABLY, A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN
ESTABLISHED AT KJKL, SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD SET IN 2014.
WHILE KLOZ MAINTAINS A RECORD OF 86 DEGREES FROM 1977, CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS THERE HAVE REMAINED IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THESE HOT, WINDY
CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH LOWERED TDS, CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. THE SURFACE LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORNING WARM FRONT IS TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, SUBSEQUENTLY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD AND BREEZY WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS LOWS DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THESE PERSISTENT
WINDS ARE A RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ. WHILE THE CORE OF THE LLJ
IS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY, WESTERN BORDER COUNTIES WILL
EXPERIENCE ENHANCED SURFACE GUSTS OVERNIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AS IT NEARS THE CWA,
LEADING TO A GRADUAL LOSS OF ORGANIZED FORCING. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS
ARE CAPPED AT 30 TO 50 PERCENT, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOCUSED ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION. GIVEN THE WEAKENING NATURE OF
THE FRONT, QPF REMAINS MEAGER AT 0.10 INCHES OR LESS. MONDAY WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S, THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE MONDAY EVENING, LEADING TO A DRY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, REMNANT UPSTREAM ENERGY IS PROGGED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
ISOLATED POP CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY INFLUENCE THE REGION, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT DURING MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A MEAN,
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED, WAVERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES.
ASCENDING FLOW OFF THE GULF (WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT) WILL
BE MORE PREDOMINANT FURTHER TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST, CLOSER TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHER
POP WILL BE IN GENERAL. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PRESSING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INTO OUR AREA AT TIMES. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE TWO MOST
PROMINENT WAVES GIVING US OUR HIGHEST POPS ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITHOUT ANY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH SATURDAY, MUCH ABOVE TEMPERATURES WILL
DOMINATE THE PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES INFLUENCED BY THE POTENTIAL
OCCURRENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE ALOFT WILL
BE THE ONE NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
FINALLY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AT THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE. WINDS HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
STARTED TO DECOUPLE. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST SOME STABILITY IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THOUGH AS DRY AIR ALLOWS FOR RELATIVELY EFFICIENT SURFACE RADIATION,
SO LLWS WAS INCLUDED IN THE OVERNIGHT TAF GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE JET (PEAKING AT 40 TO 45 KTS AT 2K FT AGL). CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES (ACCOUNTED FOR BY
PROB30 GROUPS) ARRIVING TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY
MONDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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