484
FXUS63 KJKL 130702
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
302 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. THE WARMEST PERIODS WILL BE TODAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OF THIS WEEK. NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY, ON THE WARMEST DAYS.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE
FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
A STAGNANT MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS, WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. EASTERN
KENTUCKY RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ACTIVE JET STREAM THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND REGIONS.
DESPITE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD PROVIDING
BROAD YET UNFOCUSED FORCING FOR ASCENT, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS, AND WILL REMAIN, BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC,
WITH DISTURBANCES GRAZING THE AREA WITHIN THIS OVERALL REGIME.
A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING,
LEAVING WARM ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GIVEN BROAD UNFOCUSED FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION, A CONTINUED DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE,
AND LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY, PROBTHUNDER GRIDS WERE REDUCED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND ALL THUNDERSTORM MENTIONS FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WERE REMOVED, WITH ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FALLING FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY RESULTING IN ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
AREAS, WITH LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEEING ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH
OF KY HIGHWAY 80, WITH AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER LIKELY
MISSING OUT YET AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MID- TO
UPPER-80S TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER COOLING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT DURING MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A MEAN,
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED, WAVERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES.
ASCENDING FLOW OFF THE GULF (WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT) WILL
BE MORE PREDOMINANT FURTHER TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST, CLOSER TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHER
POPS WILL BE IN GENERAL. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PRESSING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INTO OUR AREA AT TIMES. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE TWO MOST
PROMINENT WAVES GIVING US OUR HIGHEST POPS ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITHOUT
ANY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH SATURDAY, MUCH ABOVE
TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES
INFLUENCED BY THE POTENTIAL OCCURRENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WAVE ALOFT WILL BE THE ONE NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FINALLY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AT THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EVEN
WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE FALLING FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
OF DRY AIR REMAINING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY NEAR ITS PEAK, AND WILL WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AND RETREAT NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THUS, SITES SUCH AS KSJS AND KJKL SHOW AN EARLIER END
TO THE LLWS THIS MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON RIDGES AND MORE
EXPOSED SITES, BUT GUSTS WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE HEATING
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON, HIGHEST IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION (I.E, KIOB).
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL/CMC
AVIATION...CMC
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