419
FXUS63 KJKL 131137
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
737 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. THE WARMEST PERIODS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OF THIS
WEEK. NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL POSSIBLE, IF NOT
LIKELY, ON THE WARMEST DAYS.
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
MADE ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO POPS THROUGH THE TODAY PERIOD BASED ON
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THESE SHOWERS ARE
PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS THEY ARE MOVING
QUICKLY AND FALLING FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH A DRY LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, AND THAT TREND LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
PRE-DAWN UPDATE IS OUT WITH AN UPDATE TO POPS TO MATCH CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED AND FALLING FROM
RATHER HIGH CLOUD BASES OVER A DEEP, DRY LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
WOULD THUS EXPECT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE A TRACE JUST BARELY
MEASURABLE, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO THE DRY LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
A STAGNANT MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS, WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. EASTERN
KENTUCKY RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ACTIVE JET STREAM THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND REGIONS.
DESPITE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD PROVIDING
BROAD YET UNFOCUSED FORCING FOR ASCENT, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS, AND WILL REMAIN, BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC,
WITH DISTURBANCES GRAZING THE AREA WITHIN THIS OVERALL REGIME.
A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING,
LEAVING WARM ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GIVEN BROAD UNFOCUSED FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION, A CONTINUED DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE,
AND LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY, PROBTHUNDER GRIDS WERE REDUCED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND ALL THUNDERSTORM MENTIONS FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WERE REMOVED, WITH ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FALLING FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY RESULTING IN ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
AREAS, WITH LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEEING ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH
OF KY HIGHWAY 80, WITH AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER LIKELY
MISSING OUT YET AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MID- TO
UPPER-80S TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER COOLING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT DURING MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A MEAN,
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED, WAVERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES.
ASCENDING FLOW OFF THE GULF (WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT) WILL
BE MORE PREDOMINANT FURTHER TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST, CLOSER TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHER
POPS WILL BE IN GENERAL. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PRESSING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INTO OUR AREA AT TIMES. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE TWO MOST
PROMINENT WAVES GIVING US OUR HIGHEST POPS ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITHOUT
ANY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH SATURDAY, MUCH ABOVE
TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES
INFLUENCED BY THE POTENTIAL OCCURRENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WAVE ALOFT WILL BE THE ONE NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FINALLY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT 12Z TAF ISSUANCE, AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EVEN WITH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, AS THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE FALLING FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF DRY
AIR REMAINING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
CURRENT AND FUTURE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FALLING FROM ELEVATED
BASES OVER RATHER DRY LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS NEAR IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY.
SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE HEATING INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON, HIGHEST IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION (I.E, KIOB). WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND SUNSET THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, A DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A LOW-LEVEL JET INTO THE
AREA AFTER ~04Z THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS
AT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL/CMC
AVIATION...CMC
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