019
FXUS63 KJKL 132045
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
445 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK.
- THE WARMEST DAYS ARE FORECAST TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY,
ON THE WARMEST DAYS.
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
- SHOWER CHANCES AND SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE
TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED IN THE
EASTERN GULF AND EXTENDED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED IN THE HUDSON BAY VICINITY WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS.
THIS PATTERN IS RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS EASTERN
KY AND THE OH VALLEY REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC AND EXTENDED INTO
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS OVER
ELLIOTT COUNTY. RAINFALL HAS RANGED FROM A FEW SPRINKLES OR A
TRACES IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO AS MUCH AS THIRD OF AN
INCH OR SO NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. TEMPERATURES AS IF 4 PM
WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW 60S WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED IN THE
EASTERN GULF INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CURRENT WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND NEARS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AS THE DISTURBANCE THAT IS AIDING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING, SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EVENING TO THE
OVERNIGHT PER MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AS THE CLOUDS THIN AND A MODERATE MAGNITUDE
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT. LOWER 50S SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
VALLEYS WHILE RIDGES SETTLE NEAR 60S. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
CLEARING WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN FELL, SOME FOG COULD FORM,
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT GIVEN
THE RECENT DRYNESS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS
SHOULD APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF IT, AN UPTICK IN THE LLJ SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD
DAWN, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST, THOUGH RECENT CAM RUNS AND HAVE
MINIMAL ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY FOR THAT MATTER. THE
PAST TWO GFS RUNS HAVE MORE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY FOR THAT
MATTER WHILE THE ECMWF ALSO IS MORE SCANT WITH ACTIVITY. THE
NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES IF NOT SLIGHT RISES ON TUESDAY SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF MINIMAL ACTIVITY. FOR NOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
WERE CARRIED FOR TUESDAY. WITH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW LEADING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
COMPARED TO TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80 ANTICIPATED.
RIDGING DOMINATES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITHE LESS POTENTIAL FOR LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EVEN WIDER RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF LOW TO MID 50S EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN VALLEYS TO LOW
TO MID 60S ON RIDGETOPS AND MORE OPEN TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT DURING MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A MEAN,
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED, WAVERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES.
ASCENDING FLOW OFF THE GULF (WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT) WILL
BE MORE PREDOMINANT FURTHER TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST, CLOSER TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHER
POPS WILL BE IN GENERAL. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PRESSING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INTO OUR AREA AT TIMES. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE TWO MOST
PROMINENT WAVES GIVING US OUR HIGHEST POPS ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITHOUT
ANY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH SATURDAY, MUCH ABOVE
TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES
INFLUENCED BY THE POTENTIAL OCCURRENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WAVE ALOFT WILL BE THE ONE NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FINALLY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
VFR PREVAILED AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION, THOUGH THESE WERE NOT RESULTING IN REDUCTIONS BELOW VFR.
SOME GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF 20KT WERE OCCURRING, WITH A FEW
BRIEFLY STRONGER GUSTS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST/NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 6 AND 13KT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, THOUGH THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALOFT AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AFTER ABOUT 04Z
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL LLWS THREAT BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND
12Z. SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64 INCLUDING KIOB AND KSYM PRIOR TO 12Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST TO
END THE PERIOD AND COULD BRING BRIEF SUB VFR REDUCTIONS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 5 TO 15KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT SHOULD RETURN TO END
THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL/CMC
AVIATION...JP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page