761
FXUS63 KJKL 141050
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
650 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. THE WARMEST DAYS ARE FORECAST TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE, IF
NOT LIKELY, ON THE WARMEST DAYS.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES, THOUGH
THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON ANY ACTIVITY OCCURRING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE VERY NEAR TERM. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
AN ACTIVE JET STREAM AND STORM TRACK RESIDES FROM NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH STRONG RIDGING THROUGH ALL LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CENTERED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND ADJACENT
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
MODELS DEPICT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IMPINGING ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AND LASTING INTO
AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A PASSING DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INCREASING THE LOW-LEVEL
JET ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY, BUT THE GFS DOES
INDICATE A THETA- E GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER TENNESSEE
VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH
12Z-15Z THIS MORNING. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS KEEP
EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY, THE GFS IN PARTICULAR DOES INDICATE A BIT OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FORMING UPSTREAM AS EARLY AS THIS
MORNING AND THEN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL THUS CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS PRIMARILY WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. IT DOES BEAR
MENTIONING THAT AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING CLOUD TOPS ARE CURRENTLY
COOLING WHERE THE GFS PROGS THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BE
CURRENTLY.
MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER THETA-E GRADIENT MOVING FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE
NORTH INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS, AND MODELS
SUGGEST ISENTROPIC DESCENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, AT LEAST FOR THE
EVENING PERIOD, INDICATING SUBSIDENCE. WILL THUS EXPECT INCREASED
RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS AND CLEARER SKIES COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A PASSING DISTURBANCE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL PUSH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AGAIN LIKELY SERVING
AS A TRIGGER FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THESE APPEAR TO STAY NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA, SO
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
64. WILL THUS EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH A FEW 90-DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE BIG
SANDY BASIN WHERE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SOME INCREASED DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONG AND PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL REMAIN PLANTED FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO TO FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN
PIVOT MORE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS AN ONSLAUGHT OF EASTERN
PACIFIC ENERGY THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK FINALLY DISLODGES IT. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS DECENT EARLY ON, BUT THEN BECOMES LESS, WITH GREATER
DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STRONG RIDGING TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, NEARING RECORD STATUS AT TIMES, WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
WITH A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 50S AND 60S EACH NIGHT.
THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS
EAST FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. POPS WILL PEAK IN THE 40-60% RANGE.
UNFORTUNATELY, QPF CONTINUES TO LOOK LEAN, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
LIKELY SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS, ALTHOUGH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LOCALLY OVERACHIEVE.
A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY
MAKING IT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. QPF COULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND
BENEFICIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM; HOWEVER, WILL AWAIT FURTHER MODEL
TRENDS BEFORE GETTING TOO OPTIMISTIC. POPS PEAK IN THE 50-60%
RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME CHANCES EXTENDING INTO SUNDAY,
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO
THE HEATWAVE, WITH HIGHS RETREATING TO MAINLY THE 60S FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME FROST POTENTIAL MAY FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PERHAPS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS, DEPENDING ON MODEL
TRENDS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT TAF ISSUANCE AND ARE LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE
AT THE MORE EXPOSED SITES THIS MORNING AS A LOW-LEVEL JET BEGINS
TO EXIT THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY,
WITH STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF I-75 AND NEAR/NORTH OF I-64. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AND TIMING WAS TOO LOW TO
RETAIN IN THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE OUTSIDE OF A PROB30 MENTION.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...CMC
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