890
FXUS63 KJKL 141812
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
212 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 15 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY.
- A PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A
STRAY STORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE, WITH POTENTIALLY GREATER
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
HOURLY GRIDS, MAINLY TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, AND WINDS, WERE
FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. A FEW
SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A STORM FOR NORTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. THE PREVIOUS POPS HAD THIS SCENARIO COVERED SO NO CHANGES
TO POPS WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE VERY NEAR TERM. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
AN ACTIVE JET STREAM AND STORM TRACK RESIDES FROM NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH STRONG RIDGING THROUGH ALL LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CENTERED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND ADJACENT
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
MODELS DEPICT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IMPINGING ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AND LASTING INTO
AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A PASSING DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INCREASING THE LOW-LEVEL
JET ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY, BUT THE GFS DOES
INDICATE A THETA- E GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER TENNESSEE
VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH
12Z-15Z THIS MORNING. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS KEEP
EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY, THE GFS IN PARTICULAR DOES INDICATE A BIT OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FORMING UPSTREAM AS EARLY AS THIS
MORNING AND THEN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL THUS CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS PRIMARILY WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. IT DOES BEAR
MENTIONING THAT AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING CLOUD TOPS ARE CURRENTLY
COOLING WHERE THE GFS PROGS THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BE
CURRENTLY.
MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER THETA-E GRADIENT MOVING FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE
NORTH INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS, AND MODELS
SUGGEST ISENTROPIC DESCENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, AT LEAST FOR THE
EVENING PERIOD, INDICATING SUBSIDENCE. WILL THUS EXPECT INCREASED
RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS AND CLEARER SKIES COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A PASSING DISTURBANCE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL PUSH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AGAIN LIKELY SERVING
AS A TRIGGER FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THESE APPEAR TO STAY NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA, SO
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
64. WILL THUS EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH A FEW 90-DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE BIG
SANDY BASIN WHERE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SOME INCREASED DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONG AND PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL REMAIN PLANTED FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO TO FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN
PIVOT MORE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS AN ONSLAUGHT OF EASTERN
PACIFIC ENERGY THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK FINALLY DISLODGES IT. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS DECENT EARLY ON, BUT THEN BECOMES LESS, WITH GREATER
DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STRONG RIDGING TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, NEARING RECORD STATUS AT TIMES, WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
WITH A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 50S AND 60S EACH NIGHT.
THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS
EAST FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. POPS WILL PEAK IN THE 40-60% RANGE.
UNFORTUNATELY, QPF CONTINUES TO LOOK LEAN, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
LIKELY SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS, ALTHOUGH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LOCALLY OVERACHIEVE.
A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY
MAKING IT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. QPF COULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND
BENEFICIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM; HOWEVER, WILL AWAIT FURTHER MODEL
TRENDS BEFORE GETTING TOO OPTIMISTIC. POPS PEAK IN THE 50-60%
RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME CHANCES EXTENDING INTO SUNDAY,
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO
THE HEATWAVE, WITH HIGHS RETREATING TO MAINLY THE 60S FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME FROST POTENTIAL MAY FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PERHAPS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS, DEPENDING ON MODEL
TRENDS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT TAF ISSUANCE AND SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
BETWEEN A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEW ENGLAND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND
PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. A PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A SHOWER
OR STRAY STORM WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE PERIOD TO KSYM, KIOB, KJKL, AND KSJS. OTHERWISE, IN
BETWEEN THE SFC SYSTEMS, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE
BETWEEN 5 AND 15KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD. LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH AROUND 00Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN INTO THE 5 TO 12KT
RANGE FROM AROUND 14Z TO THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION MIXES OUT. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...JP
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