618
FXUS63 KJKL 150848
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
448 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
PASSING DISTURBANCE, WITH POTENTIALLY GREATER CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS
MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, BADLY NEEDED RAINFALL.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY, FROM A COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM (TO
HOT) CONDITIONS, LOW HUMIDITY (GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE), SOUTHWEST BREEZES (GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH), AND DRY FUELS
FROM THE ONGOING LACK OF SUFFICIENT WETTING RAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, AT LEAST ON RIDGETOPS AND
UPPER SLOPES, BUT FORTUNATELY MODERATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AS A PAIR OF PASSING DISTURBANCES
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON PERIOD, WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM
TEXAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC PROVIDING A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SECOND WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND CLOUD
ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN VALLEYS, AND LOW 60S ALONG RIDGE
TOPS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS, AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S. BECAUSE OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM, CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT COOL INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S. SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC, WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST, THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS,
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY,
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WILL WARM INTO MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST,
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. AT NIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY, COLD AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY, AS REMAINING SHOWERS TAPER OFF, THE COLD FRONT IS MODELED
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE
AREA, SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER IN FACT, RANGING IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEPART THE AREA. HOWEVER, EASTERN KENTUCKY LOOKS
TO BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL ADVECTING IN UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE, WHICH MAY
LEAD TO PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS.
HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO OCCUR MONDAY, LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES, AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. TUESDAY,
A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SKIRT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ITS
MAIN EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL
FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE AND SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
BETWEEN A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND A FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEW ENGLAND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THE SFC
SYSTEMS, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KTS IN MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS, WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 KTS OF LESS AT MORE
SHELTERED TAF SITES. MARGINAL LLWS HAS LIKELY PEAKED BETWEEN 03Z
AND 06Z AND WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN INTO THE 5 TO 12 KTS
RANGE FROM AROUND 14Z - ONCE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MIXES OUT -
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED .
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK/CMC
AVIATION...CMC
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