411
FXUS63 KJKL 151938 CCA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
PASSING DISTURBANCE, WITH POTENTIALLY GREATER CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS
MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY MIXING OUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
A MINOR UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT OUT TO UPDATE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE VERY NEAR TERM, AND TO UPDATE SKY GRIDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, BADLY NEEDED RAINFALL.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY, FROM A COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM (TO
HOT) CONDITIONS, LOW HUMIDITY (GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE), SOUTHWEST BREEZES (GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH), AND DRY FUELS
FROM THE ONGOING LACK OF SUFFICIENT WETTING RAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, AT LEAST ON RIDGETOPS AND
UPPER SLOPES, BUT FORTUNATELY MODERATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AS A PAIR OF PASSING DISTURBANCES
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON PERIOD, WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM
TEXAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC PROVIDING A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SECOND WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND CLOUD
ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, FRIDAY MORNING, A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES, IS BALANCED OUT BY A RIDGE OVER
EASTERN CONUS AND THE GREAT LAKES. RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST.
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE ROCKIES SYSTEM
PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CUT THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING, PROGRESSING EAST TROUGH THE
DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST, UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. AT NIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY, COLD AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY, AS REMAINING SHOWERS TAPER OFF, THE COLD FRONT IS MODELED
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE
AREA, SOME 20-25 DEGREES COOLER IN FACT, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEPART THE AREA. HOWEVER, EASTERN KENTUCKY LOOKS TO
BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
COLD AIR STILL ADVECTING IN UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS OF FROST
HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH RISES LOOK TO OCCUR MONDAY, LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN DEPRESSED UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. AT NIGHT, TEMPERATURES COOL INTO LOWER 40S.
TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SKIRT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ITS MAIN EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS
WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 70S.
A LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL HAVE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING/MIXING OUT ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 12KT RANGE WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 20KT. THESE SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AND THEN DIMINISH NEAR 00Z. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE
AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE NEARS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
FOR THE MORE WESTERN LOCATIONS, KSME, KIOB, AND KSYM BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
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