085
FXUS63 KJKL 160000 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
800 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM A
PASSING DISTURBANCE, WITH POTENTIALLY GREATER CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS
MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS SOUTHEAST OF A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH
IS KEEPING THE WEATHER WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY,
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MEANWHILE, AMID
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH A FEW LINGERING HIGHER GUSTS,
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE
T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE HWO, SAFS, AND
ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED IN THE
EASTERN GULF TO FL AREA WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTH TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TO VA. FURTHER WEST A TROUGH
EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHEASTERN NE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO
TO NW VICINITY AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WAS TO
THE WEST OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHILE AN UPPER LOW WAS OVER THE BC TO PACIFIC
NORTHWEST VICINITY WITH A TROUGH SOUTH TO CA. AT THE SURFACE, A
FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE GREAT LAKES TO A SFC
NEAR THE IA/NE BORDER AND THEN SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A FEW CUMULUS WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS
WERE A BIT HIGHER IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WHILE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
TEMPERATURES FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WERE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO TREND
UPWARD EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS TRACKS INTO WI AND
NEARS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE
ENTERING THE LOWER OH VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WITH RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD PASS ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM TIME TO TIME IN THIS SCENARIO,
BUT MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IF NOT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SEVERAL HOURS IF NOT THE ENTIRE NIGHT FREE OF
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PER 12Z HREF AND EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN VALLEYS SHOULD AGAIN DECOUPLE AND BASED ON RECENT
MIXED DEWPOINTS THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL SOME 10 TO 14 DEGREES
BELOW NBM DETERMINISTIC VALUES AND TO NEAR READINGS THAT WERE
OBSERVED THIS MORNING. RIDGETOP AND MORE OPEN TERRAIN LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN
WAVE BY THURSDAY AS IT TREKS NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WHILE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER EAST OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD OCCUR OVER EASTERN KY ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS INITIALLY IN THE HIGH PLAINS
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NEARS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THAT SECOND
SHORTWAVE SHOULD CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ON THURSDAY, 12Z HREF MEAN MUCAPE IS ON THE LOWER END ONLY
PEAKING IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE WITH SOME SHEAR IN THE 30 TO
40KT RANGE FOR BULKS SHEAR. RECENT CAM RUNS BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST NEAR OR AFTER DAWN WITH SOME
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. THAT ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO WANE
AND SHIFT EAST OF EASTERN KY BY SUNSET ON THURSDAY THOUGH SOME
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE. THIS ACTIVITY OVERALL APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE SCATTERED
IN NATURE AND RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE VARIABLE, BUT GENERALLY
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND A COUPLE OF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY IF
INSTABILITY WERE TO BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, FRIDAY MORNING, A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES, IS BALANCED OUT BY A RIDGE OVER
EASTERN CONUS AND THE GREAT LAKES. RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST.
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE ROCKIES SYSTEM
PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CUT THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING, PROGRESSING EAST TROUGH THE
DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST, UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. AT NIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY, COLD AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY, AS REMAINING SHOWERS TAPER OFF, THE COLD FRONT IS MODELED
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE
AREA, SOME 20-25 DEGREES COOLER IN FACT, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEPART THE AREA. HOWEVER, EASTERN KENTUCKY LOOKS TO
BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
COLD AIR STILL ADVECTING IN UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS OF FROST
HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH RISES LOOK TO OCCUR MONDAY, LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN DEPRESSED UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. AT NIGHT, TEMPERATURES COOL INTO LOWER 40S.
TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SKIRT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ITS MAIN EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS
WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 70S.
A LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL HAVE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 12 KTS RANGE. THE WINDS WILL SHORTLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, THOUGH MAY STAY UP OFF THE SFC AS A TOUCH
OF LLWS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT UP TO 40 KTS DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. WINDS THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM NEARS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING THAT AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP/GREIF
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