773
FXUS63 KJKL 161740
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
140 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM A PASSING
DISTURBANCE, WITH POTENTIALLY GREATER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH
A COLD FRONT.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS
MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A PROMINENT BAND OF CUMULUS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH A NARROW
PLUME OF GROWING INSTABILITY) IS NOW AT OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP. THE
LATEST RAP13 SHOWS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
JUST AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPE PROFILES ARE SKINNY, LIMITING OVERALL UPDRAFT
INTENSITY BUT SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW CELLS TO TAKE ON WEAK
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS AND PERHAPS PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1029 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING, CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH (PRESENTLY EXTENDING
FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA TO WEST TENNESSEE. THE FAVORED TIME WINDOW
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED USING THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR THE
INITIALIZATION OF THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST US RIDGE HAS STARTED TO GET SHUNTED EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT, AS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES EJECT FROM A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN.
THESE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WITH INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM AROUND MIDDAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED WIND
SHEAR WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS, AND THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD POSSIBLY BRING WIND GUSTS PRODUCING
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE SPC HAS MOVED THE MARGINAL RISK EASTWARD
THIS MORNING, COVERING ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA.
THE SECOND DISTURBANCE ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING AND WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE DIMINISHING AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES.
THE POTENTIAL QPF WITH THIS EVENT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN POOR
MODEL AGREEMENT ON DETAILS, BUT APPEARS AS THOUGH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
POTENTIALLY PUSHING TOWARD 0.50" WOULD FAVOR AREAS MOST STRICKEN BY
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
SKIES AND PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY, WITH WARM ADVECTION INCREASING AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, WARMEST IN THE BIG SANDY AND UPPER KENTUCKY
BASINS WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH
VALLEY FOG LIKELY WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS. WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL AGAIN RETURN AREAWIDE TO THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
THE PERIOD STARTS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL CONUS. INCREASING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSING
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. THE COLD FRONT WILL CUT THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY MORNING, PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING, WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASING OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MOST, UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION.
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY, COLD
AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY, AS REMAINING SHOWERS TAPER OFF, THE COLD FRONT IS MODELED
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE
AREA, SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER IN FACT, RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEPART THE AREA. HOWEVER,
EASTERN KENTUCKY LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH HEADING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR STILL ADVECTING IN UNDER LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD
TO PATCHY AREAS OF FROST HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
IN THE VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING OF WINDS IS MOST PROBABLE.
HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO OCCUR MONDAY, LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S, UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. AT NIGHT, TEMPERATURES COOL INTO LOWER 40S. TUESDAY, A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SKIRT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ITS
MAIN EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL
FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 70S.
A LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL HAVE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE, BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE WITH A WEAK, BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ANTICIPATED TIMING OF IMPACTS AT TERMINALS HAS BEEN DENOTED WITH
TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS. ANOTHER DYING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MOST LIKELY IMPACTING TERMINALS NEAR AND WEST
OF I-75 (SME AND LOZ).
SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING WINDS IN THE 7 TO 15 KTS RANGE WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OR WITH STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK/CMC
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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