840
FXUS63 KJKL 161820
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
220 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM A PASSING
DISTURBANCE, WITH POTENTIALLY GREATER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH
A COLD FRONT.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS
MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A PROMINENT BAND OF CUMULUS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH A NARROW
PLUME OF GROWING INSTABILITY) IS NOW AT OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP. THE
LATEST RAP13 SHOWS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
JUST AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPE PROFILES ARE SKINNY, LIMITING OVERALL UPDRAFT
INTENSITY BUT SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW CELLS TO TAKE ON WEAK
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS AND PERHAPS PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1029 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING, CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH (PRESENTLY EXTENDING
FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA TO WEST TENNESSEE. THE FAVORED TIME WINDOW
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED USING THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR THE
INITIALIZATION OF THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST US RIDGE HAS STARTED TO GET SHUNTED EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT, AS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES EJECT FROM A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN.
THESE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WITH INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM AROUND MIDDAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED WIND
SHEAR WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS, AND THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD POSSIBLY BRING WIND GUSTS PRODUCING
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE SPC HAS MOVED THE MARGINAL RISK EASTWARD
THIS MORNING, COVERING ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA.
THE SECOND DISTURBANCE ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING AND WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE DIMINISHING AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES.
THE POTENTIAL QPF WITH THIS EVENT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN POOR
MODEL AGREEMENT ON DETAILS, BUT APPEARS AS THOUGH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
POTENTIALLY PUSHING TOWARD 0.50" WOULD FAVOR AREAS MOST STRICKEN BY
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
SKIES AND PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY, WITH WARM ADVECTION INCREASING AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, WARMEST IN THE BIG SANDY AND UPPER KENTUCKY
BASINS WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH
VALLEY FOG LIKELY WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS. WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL AGAIN RETURN AREAWIDE TO THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST, AND
EVENTUALLY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MODELED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW IN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO LIFT
EAST INTO QUEBEC, THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS
KENTUCKY. WHILE SHOWERS AND STORMS PRECEDE THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE, THE WIND SHIFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES DON'T OCCUR UNTIL
THE EARLY EVENING (8 PM EDT OR SO). WINDS OUT THE SOUTHWEST COULD
FEATURE SOME HIGHER GUSTS NORTH OF 20-25 MPH PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LREF ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS A 50-70% CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OF SEEING WINDS GUSTING AT LEAST TO 30 MPH. BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER AROUND 25-28 KTS. AS THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS WESTERN KENTUCKY, MODELS DEPICT AN 250MB LLJ OF 50-60 KTS.
HOWEVER THIS LLJ WEAKENS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES EASTERN KENTUCKY,
CLOSER TO 35-40 KTS. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST. PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY (PIKE, MARTIN, FLOYD) COULD SEE UPPER 80S CLOSE TO 90.
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT FURTHER DEPARTS THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
STAND TO BE 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY, RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEPART THE AREA. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
FAVORED SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTING IN UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
BECAUSE OF THOSE CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF FROST HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HEIGHT RISES MONDAY LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN DEPRESSED UNDER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
AT NIGHT, TEMPERATURES COOL NEAR 40F UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE VALLEYS DECOUPLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER BOUGHT OF PATCHY FROST.
TUESDAY, WHILE THE WEST IS GETTING COOKED WITH A RIDGE A FEW SHORT
WAVES WILL WORK THERE WAY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FIRST OF
WHICH IS MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
THE SECOND BEING IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
AS THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCES ARE INTRODUCED TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S. MUCH OF THE AREA
REMAINS IN A MODERATE DROUGHT (D1).
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE, BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE WITH A WEAK, BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ANTICIPATED TIMING OF IMPACTS AT TERMINALS HAS BEEN DENOTED WITH
TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS. ANOTHER DYING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MOST LIKELY IMPACTING TERMINALS NEAR AND WEST
OF I-75 (SME AND LOZ).
SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING WINDS IN THE 7 TO 15 KTS RANGE WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OR WITH STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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