257
FXUS63 KJKL 170455
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1255 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS
MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
DID ALSO ADJUST THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT PER
THE CURRENT RADAR AND CAMS GUIDANCE. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF
THE HWO, SAFS, AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY EXITING EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING TAKING THE BEST SHOWER OR STORM CHANCES
ALONG WITH IT. STORMS TO THE WEST MAY YET HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH FOR
A GUSTY SHOWER OR THUNDER PRODUCING CELL TO MAKE IT INTO THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND AREA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES WITH SOME MID AND UPPER
60S IN THE FAR EAST WHERE THE RAIN JUST MOVED THROUGH. MEANWHILE,
AMID LIGHT WEST WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
50S WEST BUT CLOSER TO 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE
T/TD/SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS TO FINE TUNE THE POPS WITH THE EXIT OF
THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE
HWO, SAFS, AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY AT MID-AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A WEAK BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS (STRETCHING FROM HUNTINGTON TO JACKSON TO WHITELY CITY AT
1930Z) IS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S IN ADDITION TO BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAINFALL FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW PLUME OF WEAK INSTABILITY (UP TO AROUND
500 TO 1,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE) IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
(EBWD UP TO 40 KTS) ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND JUST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND EXIT INTO VIRGINIA AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORS MODEST STRENGTHENING OF
THE SHOWERS AND ANY STORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK.
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK SUPERCELLS OR EVEN WEAKLY ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS, SO STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE, PERHAPS NEARING SEVERE THRESHOLDS WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CORES. ONCE THE CONVECTION WITH THE LEADING DISTURBANCE AND
SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTS INTO VIRGINIA AROUND SUNSET, A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, PRESENTLY SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER ARKANSAS
AND MISSOURI, WILL APPROACH TONIGHT WITH A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION.
CAMS SHOW THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DYING OUT IN AN INSTABILITY
POOR ENVIRONMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE I-75 CORRIDOR AROUND
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM'S ASSOCIATED GUSTY OUTFLOW COULD
STILL PUSH DEEP INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE WEE MORNING
HOURS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES SOARING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 17C WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AN ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE
POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT WHERE THERE WILL BE WEAK INSTABILITY, BUT
THE THREAT WAS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST (LESS THAN A
15 PERCENT CHANCE). DRY AIR WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED FURTHER
EAST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S YIELDING RH VALUES OF 25
PERCENT OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT AND
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT, LEAVING A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN KENTUCKY COALFIELDS
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT IS LIKELY TO SET UP EARLY IN THE NIGHT BUT MAY GRADUALLY MIX
OUT AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING (60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE) WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO 0.25 INCH
OF RAINFALL, THOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY AREA- WIDE AFTER 9 PM WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60F. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCALES THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWER (LESS THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE) AFTER 11 PM ALONG
WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WEST OF I-75, WITH THOSE WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FADING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS
RANGING IN THE MID 80S (NEAR RECORD HIGHS). FAIR SKIES FOLLOW
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST, AND
EVENTUALLY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MODELED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW IN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO LIFT
EAST INTO QUEBEC, THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS
KENTUCKY. WHILE SHOWERS AND STORMS PRECEDE THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE, THE WIND SHIFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES DON'T OCCUR UNTIL
THE EARLY EVENING (8 PM EDT OR SO). WINDS OUT THE SOUTHWEST COULD
FEATURE SOME HIGHER GUSTS NORTH OF 20-25 MPH PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LREF ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS A 50-70% CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OF SEEING WINDS GUSTING AT LEAST TO 30 MPH. BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER AROUND 25-28 KTS. AS THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS WESTERN KENTUCKY, MODELS DEPICT AN 250MB LLJ OF 50-60 KTS.
HOWEVER THIS LLJ WEAKENS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES EASTERN KENTUCKY,
CLOSER TO 35-40 KTS. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST. PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY (PIKE, MARTIN, FLOYD) COULD SEE UPPER 80S CLOSE TO 90.
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT FURTHER DEPARTS THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
STAND TO BE 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY, RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEPART THE AREA. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
FAVORED SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTING IN UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
BECAUSE OF THOSE CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF FROST HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HEIGHT RISES MONDAY LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN DEPRESSED UNDER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
AT NIGHT, TEMPERATURES COOL NEAR 40F UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE VALLEYS DECOUPLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER BOUGHT OF PATCHY FROST.
TUESDAY, WHILE THE WEST IS GETTING COOKED WITH A RIDGE A FEW SHORT
WAVES WILL WORK THERE WAY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FIRST OF
WHICH IS MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
THE SECOND BEING IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
AS THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCES ARE INTRODUCED TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S. MUCH OF THE AREA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT IN VALLEYS IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KY SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW
CEILINGS, BUT WERE NOT AFFECTING ANY TAF SITES. THE FOG/CEILINGS
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL
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