796
FXUS63 KJKL 171201
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
801 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER
TO START THE NEW WEEK.
- AFTER COOLER WEATHER EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK, WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A COMEBACK BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 801 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
EARLY MORNING OBS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST WITHOUT ANY
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES.|
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY,
LEAVING US WITH TRANSIENT RIDGING AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN AS AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DEEPENS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A MODEST INCREASE IN DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED BY THE TIME
THE FRONT ARRIVES, AND COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/LIFT, SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST. ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED, BUT BRISK
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS COUPLED WITH DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN STRONG
WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST KY WHERE SPC HAS PLACES A
SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTS AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN ON AVERAGE, AND THAT WILL
PROBABLY BE THE ONLY RAIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK IN MOST PLACES. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION WILL PASS EAST OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
AXIS PASSES. THE NBM WAS DRY WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT LATEST MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
OCCUR. IF THE POTENTIAL PERSISTS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS, LOW POPS FOR
LIGHT PRECIP MAY GET INTRODUCED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST KY.
THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND LEAVES US WITH
LIGHTER WNW FLOW ALOFT UNTIL RIDGING ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK. A
DYING COLD FRONT BENEATH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE OHIO VALLEY AT MIDWEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN IS
FORESEEN ALONG THE FRONT, AND NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
AS SIGNIFICANT RIDGING ALOFT ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION, STRONG WARMING IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT IN VALLEYS IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KY AT TAF ISSUANCE, BUT WERE NOT AFFECTING ANY TAF SITES. THE
FOG/CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL
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