043
FXUS63 KJKL 171747
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
147 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TO START THE NEW WEEK.
- AFTER COOLER WEATHER EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK, WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A COMEBACK BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE LATE MORNING FORECAST
UPDATE. STILL ANTICIPATE NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 80S. THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 86F AT BOTH JKL
(2002) AND LOZ (1977).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
EARLY MORNING OBS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST WITHOUT ANY
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY,
LEAVING US WITH TRANSIENT RIDGING AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN AS AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DEEPENS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A MODEST INCREASE IN DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED BY THE TIME
THE FRONT ARRIVES, AND COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/LIFT, SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST. ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED, BUT BRISK
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS COUPLED WITH DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN STRONG
WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST KY WHERE SPC HAS PLACES A
SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTS AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN ON AVERAGE, AND THAT WILL
PROBABLY BE THE ONLY RAIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK IN MOST PLACES. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION WILL PASS EAST OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
AXIS PASSES. THE NBM WAS DRY WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT LATEST MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
OCCUR. IF THE POTENTIAL PERSISTS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS, LOW POPS FOR
LIGHT PRECIP MAY GET INTRODUCED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST KY.
THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND LEAVES US WITH
LIGHTER WNW FLOW ALOFT UNTIL RIDGING ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK. A
DYING COLD FRONT BENEATH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE OHIO VALLEY AT MIDWEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN IS
FORESEEN ALONG THE FRONT, AND NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
AS SIGNIFICANT RIDGING ALOFT ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION, STRONG WARMING IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING AT TAF ISSUANCE AND ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z, BEST CHANCES AT SYM AND IOB. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE COME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AFTER SUNRISE IN ON SATURDAY AT 9 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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