314
FXUS63 KJKL 172002
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
402 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TO START THE NEW WEEK.
- AFTER COOLER WEATHER EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK, WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A COMEBACK BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE LATE MORNING FORECAST
UPDATE. STILL ANTICIPATE NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 80S. THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 86F AT BOTH JKL
(2002) AND LOZ (1977).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
EARLY MORNING OBS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST WITHOUT ANY
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY,
LEAVING US WITH TRANSIENT RIDGING AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN AS AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DEEPENS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A MODEST INCREASE IN DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED BY THE TIME
THE FRONT ARRIVES, AND COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/LIFT, SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST. ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED, BUT BRISK
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS COUPLED WITH DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN STRONG
WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST KY WHERE SPC HAS PLACES A
SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTS AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN ON AVERAGE, AND THAT WILL
PROBABLY BE THE ONLY RAIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK IN MOST PLACES. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST SUNDAY, WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXITS
KENTUCKY, LEAVING BEHIND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. BEHIND THE
MAIN TROUGH, A SECONDARY REGION OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA; HOWEVER, FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS
FEATURE (ESPECIALLY RELATIVE TO THE MAIN TROUGH), SO SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. MORE INTERESTINGLY, A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND BECOMES DISCONNECTED FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, IT WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER TIME. GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS LEFT BEHIND
FROM THE ORIGINAL COLD FRONT AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SECONDARY
FRONT, PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY, WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LIKELY
BEING A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR. IN A DRIER FRONTAL PASSAGE
SCENARIO, COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR FROST
FORMATION IN VALLEYS, ALTHOUGH A HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL DEWPOINT
SPREAD REMAINS. NOTABLY, A FEW MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG THIS SECONDARY
FRONT, OWING TO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
MOISTURE PLUME IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA GIVEN A LARGE DEGREE OF MODEL
SPREAD IN QPF AT THIS TIME. SHOULD MORE RAINFALL OCCUR IN THIS
REGION, DEW POINTS UPSTREAM COULD ALSO BE HIGHER, LEADING TO
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO GREATER CLOUD COVER, LIMITED FROST POTENTIAL,
AND A FEW SPRINKLES, ALTHOUGH THIS IS PRESENTLY A LOW PROBABILITY
AND LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME
IS A RELATIVELY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
THAN AVERAGE AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY ON MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS.
FOLLOWING THIS MORE ACTIVE PERIOD, WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SET
IN. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY
SUPPORTING WARMER HIGHS THAN MONDAY. THIS HEATING WILL PUSH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWNWARDS IN THE AFTERNOON; WITH GUSTIER
WINDS POSSIBLE, FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN YET AGAIN.
ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MAY
DELIVER A GLANCING BLOW TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS HIGH MODEL SPREAD IN THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF
THE FRONT AT THIS TIME, BUT GIVEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH BOTH
POPS AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
FOLLOWING THIS, INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE MIDWEST INDICATE THAT THE
END OF THIS PERIOD COULD FEATURE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY LATER ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING AT TAF ISSUANCE AND ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z, BEST CHANCES AT SYM AND IOB. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE COME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AFTER SUNRISE IN ON SATURDAY AT 9 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...FAGAN/GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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