829
FXUS63 KJKL 172041
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
441 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS BREEZY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS, MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY.
- MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS.
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK, ALONG
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR AREA-WIDE RAINFALL BY FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER A FEW WISPY HIGH
CLOUDS WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 25 TO 40
PERCENT. THE LATEST WEATHER MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY SSW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST,
NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH 500 HPA RIDGING ALOFT. LOOKING UPSTREAM, A
POTENT 500 HPA TROUGH IS CARVING DEEPLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AN 1000 HPA SURFACE LOW
IS PASSING NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TRAILS S TO SW ACROSS KANSAS AND BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THE RIDGING WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS LIKELY TO SET UP THIS EVENING WITH
NIGHTFALL BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 4 MB
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD FAVOR AN EVENTUAL EROSION OF THE NOCTURNAL
RADIATION INVERSION AND LEAD TO LIMITED RECOUPLING FOR MANY OF THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH BUFKIT GUIDANCE SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 MPH. WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT, THERE WILL ALSO BE AN
INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, MEAGER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
LIMITING FACTOR. UPSTREAM CONVECTION PRESENTLY FIRING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WILL OUTRUN THE BOUNDARY AND DECAY AS IT RACES EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. MULTIPLE CAMS SUGGEST THAT THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS
CONVECTION COULD DRIFT DEEP INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TO NEAR THE KY-
VA BORDER BEFORE STALLING. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD EXTENT AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF STABILIZATION THAT
COULD OCCUR WITH THIS. AS A RESULT, THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE STRONGLY CONDITIONAL ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WOULD
BE IN AREAS NOT STABILIZED BY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (THUS THE
GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE BIG SANDY BASIN AND UPPER REACHES
OF THE CUMBERLAND AND KENTUCKY RIVER BASINS). THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND STRONGER CONVECTION,
REACHING THE I-64 CORRIDOR AROUND 7-8 PM SATURDAY EVENING AND
EXITING INTO VA BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT. COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S IN COOLER VALLEYS TO MID
60S ON THERMAL BELT RIDGES AND IN OPEN TERRAIN NEAR AND WEST OF I-75
AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED WARMER AREAS. ON SATURDAY,
SUNSHINE FADES TO INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
A RISING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS CLOSER TO THE VA-KY BORDER WHERE READINGS AS
WARM AS THE MID 80S CAN BE EXPECTED, WHILE ONLY UPPER 70S ARE FOUND
TOWARD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY WHERE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE
FIRST. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE OVER FAR
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THEN LINGER SATURDAY EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY FADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. THE EVENT
TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST RANGES FROM AROUND 0.3 INCH NORTH OF I-64
TO AROUND 0.6 INCH NEAR THE KY-VA BORDER.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST SUNDAY, WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXITS
KENTUCKY, LEAVING BEHIND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. BEHIND THE
MAIN TROUGH, A SECONDARY REGION OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA; HOWEVER, FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS
FEATURE (ESPECIALLY RELATIVE TO THE MAIN TROUGH), SO SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. MORE INTERESTINGLY, A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND BECOMES DISCONNECTED FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, IT WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER TIME. GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS LEFT BEHIND
FROM THE ORIGINAL COLD FRONT AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SECONDARY
FRONT, PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY, WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LIKELY
BEING A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR. IN A DRIER FRONTAL PASSAGE
SCENARIO, COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR FROST
FORMATION IN VALLEYS, ALTHOUGH A HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL DEWPOINT
SPREAD REMAINS. NOTABLY, A FEW MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG THIS SECONDARY
FRONT, OWING TO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
MOISTURE PLUME IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA GIVEN A LARGE DEGREE OF MODEL
SPREAD IN QPF AT THIS TIME. SHOULD MORE RAINFALL OCCUR IN THIS
REGION, DEW POINTS UPSTREAM COULD ALSO BE HIGHER, LEADING TO
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO GREATER CLOUD COVER, LIMITED FROST POTENTIAL,
AND A FEW SPRINKLES, ALTHOUGH THIS IS PRESENTLY A LOW PROBABILITY
AND LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME
IS A RELATIVELY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
THAN AVERAGE AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY ON MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS.
FOLLOWING THIS MORE ACTIVE PERIOD, WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SET
IN. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY
SUPPORTING WARMER HIGHS THAN MONDAY. THIS HEATING WILL PUSH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWNWARDS IN THE AFTERNOON; WITH GUSTIER
WINDS POSSIBLE, FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN YET AGAIN.
ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MAY
DELIVER A GLANCING BLOW TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS HIGH MODEL SPREAD IN THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF
THE FRONT AT THIS TIME, BUT GIVEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH BOTH
POPS AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
FOLLOWING THIS, INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE MIDWEST INDICATE THAT THE
END OF THIS PERIOD COULD FEATURE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY LATER ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING AT TAF ISSUANCE AND ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z, BEST CHANCES AT SYM AND IOB. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE COME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AFTER SUNRISE IN ON SATURDAY AT 9 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...FAGAN/GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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