650
FXUS63 KJKL 181510
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1110 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS BREEZY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL, MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY.
- MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN
NORTHERN SHELTERED VALLEYS BY MONDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS.
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK, ALONG
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR AREA-WIDE RAINFALL BY FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A SUBTLE REINVIGORATION OF THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY FROM ROUGHLY
FRANKFORT DOWN TO GLASGOW ALONG AN OUTFLOW GENERATED BY UPSTREAM
STRATIFORM/CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY, LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ATTEMPTING TO RECOVER IN A SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES ARE TRYING TO RISE, THOUGH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SLOWING DIURNAL HEATING. AS A RESULT, INSTABILITY IS
STRUGGLING TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN KENTUCKY COALFIELDS. THE
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL PRESENT
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CURRENT
INSTABILITY TRENDS DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN SPITE OF MORE THAN AMPLE WIND SHEAR. THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REACH THE
LAKE CUMBERLAND AND EASTERN BLUEGRASS BY 1-2 PM AND CONTINUE
SETTLING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE KY-VA BORDER BY AROUND 5-6 PM.
AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, ENVIRONMENTAL WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 814 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
A LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD, SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AN INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH HEATING WILL
ALLOW FOR MODEST INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/LIFT, SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. BRISK ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS COUPLED
WITH DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY IN
FAR EASTERN KY WHERE SPC HAS PLACED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WX. A
BLEND OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH
OF RAIN ON AVERAGE, AND THAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK IN MOST PLACES. DRIER AND MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT AND CARRIES THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 814 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION WILL PASS EAST OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY
PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS
PASSES. THE NBM WAS DRY WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT THE GFS DOES
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. HAVE OPTED TO MENTION SPRINKLES AT
THIS POINT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEARING
SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. SHOULD SKIES CLEAR LONG ENOUGH BEFORE SUNRISE, SOME FROST
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. HAVE PLACED SOME IN VALLEYS NORTH OF I-64 BY
DAWN ON MONDAY.
THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND LEAVES US WITH
LIGHTER WNW FLOW ALOFT UNTIL RIDGING ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK. A
DYING COLD FRONT BENEATH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE OHIO VALLEY AT MIDWEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN IS
FORESEEN ALONG THE FRONT, AND NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
AS SIGNIFICANT RIDGING ALOFT ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION, STRONG WARMING IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE
WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE AS WELL, AND AS A SHORTWAVE IMPINGES ON
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES, THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 814 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
THE DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND LAST INTO TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS, WITH IFR AT TIMES. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
VFR SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL
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