700
FXUS63 KJKL 090300 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S SUNDAY.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT.
- FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN
VALLEYS - MAINLY AWAY FROM MAINSTEM RIVERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS
ALONG WITH A TWEAKING OF POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT PER THE CURRENT
RADAR AND CAMS GUIDANCE. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS
AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING, EVEN AS IT IS SETTLING
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE. THIS MOVEMENT IS IN THE FACE OF A
COLD FRONT EASING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT.
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. CURRENTLY,
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH
A FEW SHELTERED SPOTS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S. MEANWHILE,
AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, DEWPOINTS HAVE DRIED OUT INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OBS. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE
T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS
EVENING, INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING,
PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AN
OUTSIDE SPRINKLE OR SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY AND NORTH. DEW POINTS ARE SHARPLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON,
EXCEEDING MOST MODEL TRENDS. WITH CURRENT DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA, THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED
BELOW THE 5TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM. THIS EVENING, VALLEYS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE SOME BEFORE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S IN THE
VALLEYS, AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ALONG RIDGE TOPS.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST. THE DAY IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, EVEN
SOME DECOUPLING IN THE VALLEYS IS EXPECTED, LEADING TO LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN VALLEYS, TO MID 50S ALONG
RIDGE TOPS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, MAINLY ALONG
MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THE PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED LOW IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY, WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY, INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND BRING SHOWER CHANCES
AND THE LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO
EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING
TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID-60S, NOT
QUITE TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE
MID-30S TO LOWER 40S. WHILE MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO
BE FOGGY, OUTLYING VALLEYS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY FROST.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING ROUGHLY 30 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF SLIGHT COOLDOWN THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD
OF BUILDING MID-LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA,
THOUGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WHILE CHANCES REMAIN EXTREMELY
LOW, A SPRINKLE OR AN OFF SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT
KIOB OR KSYM OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 5K FEET
FOR A TIME THERE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. THEY
WILL THEN INCREASE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS ANTICIPATED.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GINNICK/GREIF
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