581
FXUS63 KJKL 091744 CCA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
144 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO END THE
WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES AT MIDWEEK.
- FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN
DEEPER VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS - MAINLY AWAY FROM MAINSTEM RIVERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
INCORPORATED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM AROUND THE AREA TO
UPDATE THE DIURNAL CURVE. A SLIGHTLY COOLER START TO THE DAY HAS
BEEN NOTED, FROM LINGERING CLOUD COVER. SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR UNDER THESE CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING DISTURBANCE ARE
WORKING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SPRINKLES WERE REACHING THE GROUND FROM THESE PER UPSTREAM
OBS AT LEX AND OTHERS. THE PREVIOUS POPS HAD THIS SCENARIO
HANDLED. HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED IN THE HUDSON
BAY VICINITY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SOUTH INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TO NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WAS WORKING ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY. SOME CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH THIS, WITH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY ARRIVING ACROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF IT. AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THIS CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES IN DEEPER VALLEYS DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S WHILE
TEMPERATURES HELD IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. FURTHER UPSTREAM,
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ARE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGING THAT EXTENDS
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN CONUS. ONE OF THESE EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER
WAS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND COMMONWEALTH PASSING
EAST OF THE ARE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. PER THE 00Z
HREF, PW ACROSS EASTERN KY IS IN THE 20TH TO 40TH PERCENTILE AND
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 30TH TO 45TH PERCENTILE THIS
MORNING. NEVERTHELESS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY AS IT PASSES. 500 MB
HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE, WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW AND HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB OR WAVES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WILL BE PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC
WITH THE TRAILING WAVY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE OH RIVER TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES VALLEY
FOG IS PROBABLE ALONG WITH A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT. LOWS SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING, MID 40S FOR
VALLEYS AND 50S FOR RIDGETOPS AND AREAS OF MORE OPEN TERRAIN.
ON SUNDAY, THE AXIS OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH
AS THE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH OR APPROACH THE OH
VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT MEANWHILE SHOULD SAG INTO EASTERN KY. A
MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH PW PER THE 00Z HREF MEAN REACHING THE 55TH TO 70TH PERCENTILE
OR THE 0.9 TO 1.1 INCH RANGE. DAYTIME HEATING COULD RESULT IN A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AND SOME CONVECTION MAY NEAR THE
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE REACHES THE COMMONWEALTH. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
A BIT FURTHER AS COMPARED TO TODAY, SATURDAY, INTO THE MID 70S
NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS AMID A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER. ALOFT,
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
NORTH AMERICA, PLACING THE FORECAST AREA JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH
THROUGH KENTUCKY, TRAILING FROM A FAIRLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. AS THIS
FRONT TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH TIME, SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER; HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVERNIGHT, INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
MEAGER AND THUS SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE MAIN IMPACT
OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF MUCH-
NEEDED RAIN. LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1 INCH ARE
LIKELY, ALBEIT WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER TREND THAN YESTERDAYS
GUIDANCE DUE TO INDICATIONS OF LESS ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. STILL, MEDIAN LREF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
AROUND 0.2 FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, DEMONSTRATING THAT
APPRECIABLE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD. DESPITE THIS CLEARING TREND, CAA VIA NORTHERLY POSTFRONTAL
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE, WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
REACHING ONLY THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT,
CLEAR SKIES AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A RIDGE-VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT. MOS GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT SOME OF OUR COOLER
VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD FALL INTO THE 30S, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
MAGNITUDE OF COOLING AND ITS IMPACTS WILL DEPEND ON DEWPOINTS
LEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY, DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
30S APPEAR MOST LIKELY, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO VALLEY FOG (AN OUTCOME
SUPPORTED BY RECENT PRECIPITATION) AND PERHAPS ISOLATED INCIDENTS
OF FROST OUTSIDE OF RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER, ALTHOUGH IT IS
PRESENTLY A LESS FAVORED OUTCOME, A DRIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
LOWER THAN EXPECTED DEWPOINTS COULD INCREASE THE RISK OF FROST IN
SHELTERED AREAS. REGARDLESS, DESPITE A COLD MORNING, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE ORIGINAL LONGWAVE
TROUGH NOW WELL EAST OF THE CONUS, A SECOND TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BRINGING ENHANCED VORTICITY ADVECTION TO
KENTUCKY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND DOWN FROM A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW. THE EXACT POSITION OF THESE FEATURES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, BUT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY BE RELATIVELY MARGINAL; HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE MID 70S, VERY MARGINAL BUT NONZERO INSTABILITY COULD
AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY, MOST CLEAR OR SUNNY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE LED TO SOME SPOTS SEEING
MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AT 10KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GINNICK
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