846
FXUS63 KJKL 091821
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
221 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO END THE
WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES AT MIDWEEK.
- FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN
DEEPER VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS - MAINLY AWAY FROM MAINSTEM RIVERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
INCORPORATED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM AROUND THE AREA TO
UPDATE THE DIURNAL CURVE. A SLIGHTLY COOLER START TO THE DAY HAS
BEEN NOTED, FROM LINGERING CLOUD COVER. SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR UNDER THESE CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING DISTURBANCE ARE
WORKING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SPRINKLES WERE REACHING THE GROUND FROM THESE PER UPSTREAM
OBS AT LEX AND OTHERS. THE PREVIOUS POPS HAD THIS SCENARIO
HANDLED. HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED IN THE HUDSON
BAY VICINITY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SOUTH INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TO NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WAS WORKING ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY. SOME CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH THIS, WITH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY ARRIVING ACROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF IT. AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THIS CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES IN DEEPER VALLEYS DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S WHILE
TEMPERATURES HELD IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. FURTHER UPSTREAM,
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ARE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGING THAT EXTENDS
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN CONUS. ONE OF THESE EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER
WAS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND COMMONWEALTH PASSING
EAST OF THE ARE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. PER THE 00Z
HREF, PW ACROSS EASTERN KY IS IN THE 20TH TO 40TH PERCENTILE AND
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 30TH TO 45TH PERCENTILE THIS
MORNING. NEVERTHELESS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY AS IT PASSES. 500 MB
HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE, WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW AND HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB OR WAVES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WILL BE PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC
WITH THE TRAILING WAVY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE OH RIVER TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES VALLEY
FOG IS PROBABLE ALONG WITH A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT. LOWS SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING, MID 40S FOR
VALLEYS AND 50S FOR RIDGETOPS AND AREAS OF MORE OPEN TERRAIN.
ON SUNDAY, THE AXIS OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH
AS THE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH OR APPROACH THE OH
VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT MEANWHILE SHOULD SAG INTO EASTERN KY. A
MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH PW PER THE 00Z HREF MEAN REACHING THE 55TH TO 70TH PERCENTILE
OR THE 0.9 TO 1.1 INCH RANGE. DAYTIME HEATING COULD RESULT IN A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AND SOME CONVECTION MAY NEAR THE
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE REACHES THE COMMONWEALTH. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
A BIT FURTHER AS COMPARED TO TODAY, SATURDAY, INTO THE MID 70S
NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY MORNING WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS EXITING SOUTH AND EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN AN OVERALL BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS
MONDAY. THOUGH MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN 24 HOURS,
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. MONDAY NIGHT IS STILL LOOKING RATHER CHILLY FOR MID-MAY AS
SURFACE PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER OHIO. BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR CAN MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WHETHER WINDS
FULLY DECOUPLE NEAR RIDGETOP LEVEL. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WITH
FULL DECOUPLING WILL INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST IN
THE OUTLYING HOLLOWS AWAY FROM MAINSTEM STREAMS AND RIVERS, WHICH
ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE THE TYPICAL FOG IN SUCH SETUPS.
A MODEST WARM-UP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, SO WHILE THUNDER
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST CURRENTLY, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THIS REDUCED TO JUST SHOWERS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF MODEST COOLDOWN THURSDAY, HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, SIGNALING A STRONGER WARM-
UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DISCREPANCIES YIELDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS BY
THIS TIME, LOW-END POPS AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT ARE INDICATED BY THE
NBM AS MODELS HINT AT A POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE AND/OR FRONT NEAR THE
AREA WITH SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE LED TO SOME SPOTS SEEING
MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AT 10KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GINNICK
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