561
FXUS63 KJKL 100645 AAB
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
245 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO END THE
WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES AT MIDWEEK.
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN DEEPER RURAL VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS - MAINLY AWAY FROM MAINSTEM
RIVERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VALLEY FOG HAS BECOME QUITE PREVALENT ALONG THE RIVERS, LAKES, AND
LARGER CREEKS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE MTN PKWY PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ALSO, PER KY MESONET AND PERSONAL WEATHER STATION
NETWORKS, VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY OR AT OR FALLING BELOW
FORECAST MIN T IN SOME AREAS. ADJUSTMENTS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FOR MIN T WERE MADE FOR THESE AREAS AND AREAL EXTENT AND
INTENSITY OF FOG WAS ALIGNED WITH RECENT RECENT TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS IT IS LARGELY ON TRACK.
JUST INCORPORATED THE LATEST SURFACE OBS. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SAVED
AND SENT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
AT 18Z MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, FROM
MORNING DRIZZLE. THESE PERSISTENT CLOUDS HAVE OBSTRUCTED THE SKY AND
HINDERED DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA AND LIKELY WONT REACH THE MID TO UPPER
70S PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD USING THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM TO GET UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S IN THE FORECAST.
AS A SURFACE LOW WORKS UP TOWARDS HUDSON BAY, THE SYSTEMS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT,
AND IS EXPECTED TO SIT JUST WEST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
WINDS VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY. THIS EVENING, WITH CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED TO CLEAR OUT AND WINDS SLACKING OVERNIGHT, VALLEYS AND
HOLLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
IN COLDEST SHELTERED VALLEYS WHILE REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG RIDE TOPS.
SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY,
AND A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT, SOME MODEST CAPE
(1400 J/KG)COULD KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY
USHERING IN SOME CAA HEADING INTO THE EVENING. WITH OVERCAST AND
SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ELEVATED, GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY MORNING WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS EXITING SOUTH AND EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN AN OVERALL BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS
MONDAY. THOUGH MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN 24 HOURS,
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. MONDAY NIGHT IS STILL LOOKING RATHER CHILLY FOR MID-MAY AS
SURFACE PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER OHIO. BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR CAN MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WHETHER WINDS
FULLY DECOUPLE NEAR RIDGETOP LEVEL. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WITH
FULL DECOUPLING WILL INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST IN
THE OUTLYING HOLLOWS AWAY FROM MAINSTEM STREAMS AND RIVERS, WHICH
ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE THE TYPICAL FOG IN SUCH SETUPS.
A MODEST WARM-UP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, SO WHILE THUNDER
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST CURRENTLY, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THIS REDUCED TO JUST SHOWERS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF MODEST COOLDOWN THURSDAY, HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, SIGNALING A STRONGER WARM-
UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DISCREPANCIES YIELDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS BY
THIS TIME, LOW-END POPS AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT ARE INDICATED BY THE
NBM AS MODELS HINT AT A POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE AND/OR FRONT NEAR THE
AREA WITH SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT ISSUANCE TIME. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH
REDUCTIONS TO IFR AND IN SOME CASES LOWER WAS PRESENT AT NON TAF
SITE LOCATIONS. AT THIS POINT, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. A SAGGING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION FROM ABOUT 18Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. RECENT
TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGHEST CHANCE AT KSJS WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS
USED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL REMAIN SHOWER CHANCES
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF WINDOW BUT MAINLY TO KSJS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z, FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THAT SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AREAWIDE
THROUGH AROUND 00Z. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF
THE PERIOD, TRENDING TOWARD THE NORTH. A DISTURBANCE INTERACTING
WITH THE FRONT MAY BRING GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JP
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