941
FXUS63 KJKL 100842
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
442 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES AT
MIDWEEK.
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN DEEPER RURAL VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS - MAINLY AWAY FROM MAINSTEM
RIVERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VALLEY FOG HAS BECOME QUITE PREVALENT ALONG THE RIVERS, LAKES, AND
LARGER CREEKS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE MTN PKWY PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ALSO, PER KY MESONET AND PERSONAL WEATHER STATION
NETWORKS, VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY OR AT OR FALLING BELOW
FORECAST MIN T IN SOME AREAS. ADJUSTMENTS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FOR MIN T WERE MADE FOR THESE AREAS AND AREAL EXTENT AND
INTENSITY OF FOG WAS ALIGNED WITH RECENT RECENT TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS IT IS LARGELY ON TRACK.
JUST INCORPORATED THE LATEST SURFACE OBS. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SAVED
AND SENT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
AT 18Z MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, FROM
MORNING DRIZZLE. THESE PERSISTENT CLOUDS HAVE OBSTRUCTED THE SKY AND
HINDERED DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA AND LIKELY WONT REACH THE MID TO UPPER
70S PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD USING THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM TO GET UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S IN THE FORECAST.
AS A SURFACE LOW WORKS UP TOWARDS HUDSON BAY, THE SYSTEMS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT,
AND IS EXPECTED TO SIT JUST WEST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
WINDS VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY. THIS EVENING, WITH CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED TO CLEAR OUT AND WINDS SLACKING OVERNIGHT, VALLEYS AND
HOLLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
IN COLDEST SHELTERED VALLEYS WHILE REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG RIDE TOPS.
SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY,
AND A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT, SOME MODEST CAPE
(1400 J/KG)COULD KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY
USHERING IN SOME CAA HEADING INTO THE EVENING. WITH OVERCAST AND
SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ELEVATED, GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN US, WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOLLOWING
THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD FRONT. CLEAR SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT; THUS, LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MINT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER SINCE
YESTERDAY, IN ACCORDANCE WITH MODELS FAVORING MARGINALLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ON MONDAY NIGHT; ACCORDINGLY, COOP MOS GUIDANCE NOW
SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR OUR MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS. IF
THIS MORE MOIST TREND HOLDS, THE PRIMARY IMPACT OVERNIGHT WOULD BE
FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MASS COULD ALLOW LOWS TO PLUMMET FURTHER AND ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FROST FORMATION IN SHELTERED HOLLOWS. THIS SOLUTION IS
CURRENTLY FAVORED BY THE ECMWF, OWING TO LOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE QPF
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW, BOTH FROST
AND FOG WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST FOR APPROPRIATE VALLEY
LOCATIONS, BUT DEWPOINT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE AND WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY, TUESDAY AFTERNOONS HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE ORIGINAL TROUGH, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TIME,
AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH EAST INTO
KENTUCKY AND ENTER OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE MEAGER, WITH THE LREF
OUTPUTTING MEDIAN MUCAPE OF UNDER 500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT;
THUS, THE MAIN IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH GIVEN A LACK OF ANTECEDENT MOISTURE,
QPF WILL LIKELY BE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RISE INTO
THE MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EVENTUALLY CALM OVERNIGHT.
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN YET AGAIN, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON THURSDAY. MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD ENTER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THE NBM HAS ATTEMPTED TO AVERAGE OUT THESE TRENDS BY INTRODUCING
GENERALIZED POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT ISSUANCE TIME. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH
REDUCTIONS TO IFR AND IN SOME CASES LOWER WAS PRESENT AT NON TAF
SITE LOCATIONS. AT THIS POINT, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. A SAGGING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION FROM ABOUT 18Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. RECENT
TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGHEST CHANCE AT KSJS WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS
USED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL REMAIN SHOWER CHANCES
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF WINDOW BUT MAINLY TO KSJS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z, FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THAT SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AREAWIDE
THROUGH AROUND 00Z. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF
THE PERIOD, TRENDING TOWARD THE NORTH. A DISTURBANCE INTERACTING
WITH THE FRONT MAY BRING GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...JP
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