427
FXUS63 KJKL 101732
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
132 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES AT
MIDWEEK.
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN DEEPER RURAL VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS - MAINLY AWAY FROM MAINSTEM
RIVERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
MADE MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY T/TD/SKY GRIDS INTO THE AFTERNOON,
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS, AND THE
GENERAL FORECAST IDEA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION STILL HOLDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A FEW MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
POINT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT. THESE
WERE MOST PREVALENT IN THE NORTH, WHILE IN SEVERAL VALLEY LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE MTN PKWY FOG WAS PRESENT AND TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON OBSERVATION AND
SATELLITE TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE HUDSON
AND JAMES BAY AREAS OF CANADA ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY AS WELL AS THE OH
VALLEY, TN VALLEY, AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FURTHER
WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND GREAT BASIN TO NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO ALBERTA. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WERE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH ONE WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION
WHILE ANOTHER WAS NEARING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER
UPSTREAM AND NEARING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO OCCUR
AS VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED. TEMPERATURES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS
WERE IN THE MID 40S AT PRESENT WHILE RIDGETOP AND MORE OPEN
TERRAIN LOCATIONS WERE IN THE 50S. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG
THE RIVERS, LAKES, AND LARGER CREEKS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE MTN
PKWY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, A MORE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS QUEBEC, THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND ALLOW THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SAG
SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER AND INTO EASTERN KY TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OH
VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD PROMOTE THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUING TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EVENING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MEANWHILE
SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND REACH THE LOWER OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING, PASSING EAST OF EASTERN KY ON MONDAY MORNING.
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
MONDAY, REACHING EASTERN KY TO END THE PERIOD. WITH THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO SAG SOUTH, SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
EASTERN KY ON MONDAY.
VALLEY FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST
SUNRISE TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING TO NEAR IF NOT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH TO NEAR 80 IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTH) AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S SHOULD YIELD LOWER END INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG, AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG IF NOT SLIGHTLY HIGHER PER THE
00Z HREF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS. NEAR THE BOUNDARY, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AS PROGGED BY HIGH
RESOLUTION/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. THIS MAY RESULT IN TRACE TO
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN GENERAL, WITH SOME ISOLATED
AMOUNTS IN THE TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE. PW PER THE 00Z
HREF GRADUALLY RISES TODAY FROM THE 15TH TO 45TH PERCENTILE OR
THE 0.5 INCHES SOUTH TO NEARLY 0.9 INCHES NORTH TO THE 50TH TO
60TH PERCENTILE OR 0.9 TO 1.1 INCHES BY EARLY EVENING. SOUTH OF
THE MTN PKWY PW ALSO PER THE 00Z HREF SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
50TH TO 70TH PERCENTILE RANGE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT LIMITED,
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FOR A GENERALIZED LIGHT
RAINFALL NEARING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO FROM LATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT IN THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. MORE
NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY ONLY PICK UP A TRACE TONIGHT IF THAT.
AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST OF EASTERN KY, CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY
ON MONDAY FOLLOWING SUNRISE. A TREND OF DECREASING CLOUDS IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED AND DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER IN, PARTICULARLY
IN THE NORTH AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES TREND
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN US, WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOLLOWING
THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD FRONT. CLEAR SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT; THUS, LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MINT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER SINCE
YESTERDAY, IN ACCORDANCE WITH MODELS FAVORING MARGINALLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ON MONDAY NIGHT; ACCORDINGLY, COOP MOS GUIDANCE NOW
SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR OUR MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS. IF
THIS MORE MOIST TREND HOLDS, THE PRIMARY IMPACT OVERNIGHT WOULD BE
FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MASS COULD ALLOW LOWS TO PLUMMET FURTHER AND ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FROST FORMATION IN SHELTERED HOLLOWS. THIS SOLUTION IS
CURRENTLY FAVORED BY THE ECMWF, OWING TO LOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE QPF
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW, BOTH FROST
AND FOG WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST FOR APPROPRIATE VALLEY
LOCATIONS, BUT DEWPOINT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE AND WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY, TUESDAY AFTERNOONS HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE ORIGINAL TROUGH, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TIME,
AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH EAST INTO
KENTUCKY AND ENTER OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE MEAGER, WITH THE LREF
OUTPUTTING MEDIAN MUCAPE OF UNDER 500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT;
THUS, THE MAIN IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH GIVEN A LACK OF ANTECEDENT MOISTURE,
QPF WILL LIKELY BE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RISE INTO
THE MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EVENTUALLY CALM OVERNIGHT.
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN YET AGAIN, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON THURSDAY. MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD ENTER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THE NBM HAS ATTEMPTED TO AVERAGE OUT THESE TRENDS BY INTRODUCING
GENERALIZED POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT ISSUANCE TIME WITH AREAS OF LOW AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WAS LOCATED BETWEEN KFGX AND KSYM/KIOB. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS ALL
SITES BY 05Z TONIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIMEFRAME WITH MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
BUT PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME. A LULL IN ACTIVITY COULD
OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z BEFORE RENEWED ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH AS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
TN/VA BORDER, WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT SITES TO INDICATE THIS
POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH COULD BE LOCALLY GUSTY WITH THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH DIRECTION AREAWIDE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z, WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFTING TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT (LESS THAN 7 KTS) FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...CMC
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