392
FXUS63 KJKL 101839
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
239 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES AT
MIDWEEK.
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN DEEPER RURAL VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS - MAINLY AWAY FROM MAINSTEM
RIVERS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A SURFACE COLD FRONT, AT 18Z SATURDAY SITUATED ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TO THE TN/VA BORDER AREA
THIS EVENING, THEN BRIEFLY STALL THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST MONDAY. ALOFT, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL CROSS THE AREA
AROUND 12Z MONDAY, BRINGING 40 TO 60 PERCENT SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY, THOUGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND INSUFFICIENT TO MITIGATE OUR
INCREASING RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
NEUTRAL TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER
THROUGH THIS EVENING, THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER
WOULD BE THE LOW (AND DECREASING) POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN
OUTLYING HOLLOWS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS AWAY FROM MAINSTEM RIVERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHERE LOWS COULD BRIEFLY REACH
THE MID-30S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER DEW POINTS AND HIGHER LOW TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, MAKING PATCHY FROST A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST MAINSTEM RIVER
VALLEYS WITH LOWS AROUND 40 DEGREES TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
TUESDAY, IN THE WAKE OF A CHILLY MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BRIEFLY
BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM COMES FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THROUGH TUESDAY THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PROGRESSES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH A LAX PRESSURE
GRADIENT, (UNDER 5 MB DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA) OVERNIGHT, ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TO START OFF WITH, A RATHER LARGE
RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT MAY DEVELOP AS SHELTERED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS
DECOUPLE HEADING IN THE EVENING. AT CURRENT, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS, WHILE
RIDGE TOPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 40S, SOME FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG
MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS.
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY MORNING THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL HAVE
BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH ITS COLD FRONT REMAINING JUST WEST OF
THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WIND IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, SO ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAY MIX
OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH NO STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. WEDNESDAY EVENING, AFTER THE FRONT
HAS MOVED THROUGH SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE MID
40S.
THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA LEADING TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THE AREA WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS,
SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT COOLER, IN THE UPPER 60S FOR
MOST. AT CURRENT, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY THOUGHT TO BE IN
THE MID 40S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, FORECASTED DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION, SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY
DECOUPLE HEADING INTO THE EVENING, LEADING TO A COOLER LOW THAN RIDGE-
TOPS THAT MAY STAY SOMEWHAT MIXED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES. HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES, REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
BY SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES DO HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM TOWARDS IN THIS
TIMEFRAME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING. AS A RESULT THE NBM HAS
SMOOTHED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THESE DAYS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT ISSUANCE TIME WITH AREAS OF LOW AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WAS LOCATED BETWEEN KFGX AND KSYM/KIOB. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS ALL
SITES BY 05Z TONIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIMEFRAME WITH MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
BUT PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME. A LULL IN ACTIVITY COULD
OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z BEFORE RENEWED ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH AS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
TN/VA BORDER, WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT SITES TO INDICATE THIS
POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH COULD BE LOCALLY GUSTY WITH THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH DIRECTION AREAWIDE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z, WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFTING TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT (LESS THAN 7 KTS) FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
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