167
FXUS63 KJKL 110630 AAB
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES AT
MIDWEEK.
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN DEEPER RURAL VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS - MAINLY AWAY FROM MAINSTEM
RIVERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
JUST A QUICK REFRESH OF THE GRIDS TO ADD IN THE LATEST SURFACE OBS
BUT TO ALSO TOUCH UP THE POP BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SAVED AND SENT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A SURFACE COLD FRONT, AT 18Z SATURDAY SITUATED ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TO THE TN/VA BORDER AREA
THIS EVENING, THEN BRIEFLY STALL THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST MONDAY. ALOFT, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL CROSS THE AREA
AROUND 12Z MONDAY, BRINGING 40 TO 60 PERCENT SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY, THOUGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND INSUFFICIENT TO MITIGATE OUR
INCREASING RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
NEUTRAL TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER
THROUGH THIS EVENING, THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER
WOULD BE THE LOW (AND DECREASING) POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN
OUTLYING HOLLOWS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS AWAY FROM MAINSTEM RIVERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHERE LOWS COULD BRIEFLY REACH
THE MID-30S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER DEW POINTS AND HIGHER LOW TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, MAKING PATCHY FROST A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST MAINSTEM RIVER
VALLEYS WITH LOWS AROUND 40 DEGREES TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
TUESDAY, IN THE WAKE OF A CHILLY MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BRIEFLY
BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM COMES FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THROUGH TUESDAY THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PROGRESSES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH A LAX PRESSURE
GRADIENT, (UNDER 5 MB DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA) OVERNIGHT, ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TO START OFF WITH, A RATHER LARGE
RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT MAY DEVELOP AS SHELTERED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS
DECOUPLE HEADING IN THE EVENING. AT CURRENT, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS, WHILE
RIDGE TOPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 40S, SOME FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG
MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS.
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY MORNING THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL HAVE
BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH ITS COLD FRONT REMAINING JUST WEST OF
THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WIND IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, SO ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAY MIX
OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH NO STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. WEDNESDAY EVENING, AFTER THE FRONT
HAS MOVED THROUGH SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE MID
40S.
THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA LEADING TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THE AREA WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS,
SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT COOLER, IN THE UPPER 60S FOR
MOST. AT CURRENT, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY THOUGHT TO BE IN
THE MID 40S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, FORECASTED DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION, SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY
DECOUPLE HEADING INTO THE EVENING, LEADING TO A COOLER LOW THAN RIDGE-
TOPS THAT MAY STAY SOMEWHAT MIXED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES. HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES, REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
BY SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES DO HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM TOWARDS IN THIS
TIMEFRAME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING. AS A RESULT THE NBM HAS
SMOOTHED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THESE DAYS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR WAS OBSERVED AT THE TAF SITES AT ISSUANCE TIME. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY AT THAT TIME AS WELL.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE AND PEAK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. IN ANY STRONGER SHOWERS, MVFR
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT VFR WAS CARRIED IN THE TAFS AT
THIS POINT. SHOWERS DIMINISH IN THE SOUTH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z,
GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS EARLY AS THE 03Z TO 06Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, MVFR OR PERHAPS LOWER FOG MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT
NON-TAF SITE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
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