833
FXUS63 KJKL 110912
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
512 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS MORNING, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY.
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN DEEPER RURAL VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS - MAINLY AWAY FROM MAINSTEM
RIVERS.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
JUST A QUICK REFRESH OF THE GRIDS TO ADD IN THE LATEST SURFACE OBS
BUT TO ALSO TOUCH UP THE POP BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SAVED AND SENT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A SURFACE COLD FRONT, AT 18Z SATURDAY SITUATED ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TO THE TN/VA BORDER AREA
THIS EVENING, THEN BRIEFLY STALL THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST MONDAY. ALOFT, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL CROSS THE AREA
AROUND 12Z MONDAY, BRINGING 40 TO 60 PERCENT SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY, THOUGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND INSUFFICIENT TO MITIGATE OUR
INCREASING RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
NEUTRAL TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER
THROUGH THIS EVENING, THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER
WOULD BE THE LOW (AND DECREASING) POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN
OUTLYING HOLLOWS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS AWAY FROM MAINSTEM RIVERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHERE LOWS COULD BRIEFLY REACH
THE MID-30S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER DEW POINTS AND HIGHER LOW TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, MAKING PATCHY FROST A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST MAINSTEM RIVER
VALLEYS WITH LOWS AROUND 40 DEGREES TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US INTO QUEBEC. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD IN CORRESPONDENCE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THIS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME DECOUPLING TUESDAY NIGHT, LEADING
TO A WEAK RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN.
THEN, THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERALL, THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MODULATED BY THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE; FOR NOW, MOST MODELS FAVOR A MORNING FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY, ALTHOUGH THE NAM DELAYS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON, OWING TO A FARTHER SOUTH
UPPER LEVEL LOW DELAYING THE BREAKDOWN OF RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS SLOWER FRONT SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR
MARGINALLY MORE INSTABILITY, OWING TO ADDITIONAL DIURNAL HEATING,
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES AND PERHAPS ALLOW FOR
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF QPF, ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION REMAINS AN
OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PW VALUES WILL STRUGGLE
TO EXCEED 1 GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY PREFRONTAL AIR MASS; THUS, QPF
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW, WITH LREF MEDIAN 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO UNDER 0.1 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THIS CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES WITH
TIME.
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANQUIL, BUT COOL WEATHER DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND WEAK CAA GIVEN NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY POSTFRONTAL WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO PERHAPS THE LOW
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS, APPROXIMATELY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL CREATE OPTIMAL CONDITIONS
FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH GFS BASED COOP MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WOULD ONCE AGAIN INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR
PATCHY FROST FOR SHELTERED HOLLOWS, ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY BE A
LIMITING FACTOR IN HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON THURSDAY
NIGHT; HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE SOURCE REGION WOULD FAVOR WARMER
LOWS AND FOG AND THUS A DECREASED FROST RISK, SO DEWPOINT TRENDS
WILL REQUIRE MONITORING FOR FUTURE UPDATES. GOING INTO FRIDAY, THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S, WITH
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN INITIATING FOLLOWING THE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW; THIS WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WARMER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND, MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE HIGH, AND
THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND; HOWEVER, THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION
AND EFFECT OF THIS FEATURE, LEADING TO INTENSE MODEL DISAGREEMENT
IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOWNSTREAM. MANY MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY, BUT
THE TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF ANY IMPULSES REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS
TIME. ACCOUNTING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES, THE
NBM HAS OUTPUT LOW-END POPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR WAS OBSERVED AT THE TAF SITES AT ISSUANCE TIME. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY AT THAT TIME AS WELL.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE AND PEAK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. IN ANY STRONGER SHOWERS, MVFR
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT VFR WAS CARRIED IN THE TAFS AT
THIS POINT. SHOWERS DIMINISH IN THE SOUTH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z,
GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS EARLY AS THE 03Z TO 06Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, MVFR OR PERHAPS LOWER FOG MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT
NON-TAF SITE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...JP
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