216
FXUS63 KJKL 111730
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS MORNING, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY.
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN DEEPER RURAL VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS - MAINLY AWAY FROM MAINSTEM
RIVERS.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY T/TD GRIDS AS WELL AS SKY AND POPS
WERE MADE WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE, MAINLY BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVED TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS RANGED FROM ONLY A TRACE IN
NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS NEAR THE I-64
CORRIDOR. FURTHER SOUTH, RAINFALL HAS RANGED BETWEEN A TENTH AND
A QUARTER OF AN INCH SO FAR. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF
SHOWERS/RAIN RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE TOTALS HAS SHIFTED TO NEAR OR
SOUTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY AT THIS TIME. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS WITH ALL OF THE
RAIN EXITING INTO VA BY THAT TIME. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO NO POP UPDATES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
TO ALIGN WITH OBSERVATION TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 540 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER QUEBEC WITH A
TRAILING 500 MB TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH
VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY TO TX. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WAS
CENTERED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MANITOBA. AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND AROUND THIS
RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE
MARITIMES WITH THE TRAILING WAVY COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
CAROLINAS TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE TX GULF COAST
VICINITY. MODEST MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH 0.75
INCHES PW ANALYZED IN THE NORTH WITH NEAR 1.1 INCHES ALONG THE TN
BORDER AND THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WAVY FRONTAL ZONE TO
THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACH OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS LEADING TO
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
I-64 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL SINCE THE EVENING RANGES FROM 0.01 TO
ABOUT ONE TENTH THUS FAR.
TODAY, THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS
EASTERN KY THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD BE EAST OF EASTERN KY
AROUND MIDDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CANADA MEANDERS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RESULT IN THE FRONT
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS ALSO DEPARTING THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES TREND A FEW
DEGREES COLDER TO THE LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE FOR HIGHS TODAY OR
NEARLY 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AXIS, 500 MB HEIGHT RISES SHOULD OCCUR ON
AVERAGE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING INTO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO OH AND TN VALLEYS. CORRESPONDING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS THE LOWER
OH VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING TREND BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THE RECENT
RAINFALL, VALLEY FOG APPEARS MOST FAVORED PENDING DEWPOINTS ALONG
RIVERS, THE LARGER CREEK, AND AREA LAKES. THE TYPICALLY COLDEST
SPOTS AND MORE RURAL VALLEY LOCATIONS AND HOLLOWS SHOULD AVERAGE A
COUPLE DEGREES COLDER AND MAY EXPERIENCE PATCHY LIGHT FROST. AT
THIS POINT, OPTED TO GO WITH MIN T FOR THESE NORMALLY COLDER AREAS
NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 37 OR NEAR THE GFS BASED COOP MOS GUIDANCE
VALUES.
UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGING, THE SHORTWAVE INITIALLY OVER WESTERN
CANADA IS EXPECTED TO TREK EAST SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER AND THE MID MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY, DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGING THAT BUILDS
NORTH FORM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS/FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHEAST
CONUS AND BC. THE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE THE NEXT SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH NEARING THE GREAT LAKES REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
END THE PERIOD WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY TO TX PANHANDLE VICINITY. RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MODERATING A FEW DEGREES TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US INTO QUEBEC. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD IN CORRESPONDENCE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THIS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME DECOUPLING TUESDAY NIGHT, LEADING
TO A WEAK RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN.
THEN, THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERALL, THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MODULATED BY THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE; FOR NOW, MOST MODELS FAVOR A MORNING FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY, ALTHOUGH THE NAM DELAYS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON, OWING TO A FARTHER SOUTH
UPPER LEVEL LOW DELAYING THE BREAKDOWN OF RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS SLOWER FRONT SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR
MARGINALLY MORE INSTABILITY, OWING TO ADDITIONAL DIURNAL HEATING,
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES AND PERHAPS ALLOW FOR
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF QPF, ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION REMAINS AN
OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PW VALUES WILL STRUGGLE
TO EXCEED 1 GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY PREFRONTAL AIR MASS; THUS, QPF
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW, WITH LREF MEDIAN 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO UNDER 0.1 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THIS CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES WITH
TIME.
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANQUIL, BUT COOL WEATHER DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND WEAK CAA GIVEN NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY POSTFRONTAL WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO PERHAPS THE LOW
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS, APPROXIMATELY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL CREATE OPTIMAL CONDITIONS
FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH GFS BASED COOP MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WOULD ONCE AGAIN INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR
PATCHY FROST FOR SHELTERED HOLLOWS, ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY BE A
LIMITING FACTOR IN HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON THURSDAY
NIGHT; HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE SOURCE REGION WOULD FAVOR WARMER
LOWS AND FOG AND THUS A DECREASED FROST RISK, SO DEWPOINT TRENDS
WILL REQUIRE MONITORING FOR FUTURE UPDATES. GOING INTO FRIDAY, THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S, WITH
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN INITIATING FOLLOWING THE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW; THIS WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WARMER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND, MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE HIGH, AND
THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND; HOWEVER, THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION
AND EFFECT OF THIS FEATURE, LEADING TO INTENSE MODEL DISAGREEMENT
IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOWNSTREAM. MANY MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY, BUT
THE TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF ANY IMPULSES REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS
TIME. ACCOUNTING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES, THE
NBM HAS OUTPUT LOW-END POPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POTENTIALLY LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT IN MANY AREA VALLEYS, WHICH
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT KSME AND KLOZ. FOG ALSO CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ON RIDGETOPS SUCH AS AT KJKL, BUT IS NOT
MENTIONED IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS BEHIND THIS MORNING'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL QUICKLY BACK FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS EXPECTED
AT 10 KTS OR LESS, BEFORE DECOUPLING AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 7
KTS OR LESS WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND 15Z TUESDAY WITH THE
ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...CMC
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