059
FXUS63 KJKL 111829 CCA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
229 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING IN DEEPER RURAL VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS - MAINLY
AWAY FROM MAINSTEM RIVERS. THERE IS A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FROST
FORMATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND
ACCOMPANIED BY A TREND OF INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING,
WITH NORTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING NEUTRAL BY
TUESDAY MORNING, WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGING, AND THEN INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC AGAIN AS A
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. GIVEN THIS MORNING'S RAINFALL
COMBINED WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, WITH FOG IN MOST IF NOT ALL RIVER
VALLEYS, WITH JUST THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF FROST IN SOME OF THE
OUTLYING VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND JUST A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR IN THE MID- 70S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD,
AND CHANCE POPS ARE INTRODUCED FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. GIVEN VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
INDICATED IN THE MODELS, ANY ACTIVITY ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS, GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT, DESPITE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION, WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY ROBUST RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS THE
LIKELY FORMATION OF FOG IN THE MORE PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US INTO QUEBEC. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD IN CORRESPONDENCE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THIS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME DECOUPLING TUESDAY NIGHT, LEADING
TO A WEAK RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN.
THEN, THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERALL, THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MODULATED BY THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE; FOR NOW, MOST MODELS FAVOR A MORNING FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY, ALTHOUGH THE NAM DELAYS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON, OWING TO A FARTHER SOUTH
UPPER LEVEL LOW DELAYING THE BREAKDOWN OF RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS SLOWER FRONT SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR
MARGINALLY MORE INSTABILITY, OWING TO ADDITIONAL DIURNAL HEATING,
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES AND PERHAPS ALLOW FOR
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF QPF, ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION REMAINS AN
OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PW VALUES WILL STRUGGLE
TO EXCEED 1 GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY PREFRONTAL AIR MASS; THUS, QPF
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW, WITH LREF MEDIAN 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO UNDER 0.1 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THIS CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES WITH
TIME.
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANQUIL, BUT COOL WEATHER DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND WEAK CAA GIVEN NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY POSTFRONTAL WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO PERHAPS THE LOW
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS, APPROXIMATELY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL CREATE OPTIMAL CONDITIONS
FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH GFS BASED COOP MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WOULD ONCE AGAIN INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR
PATCHY FROST FOR SHELTERED HOLLOWS, ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY BE A
LIMITING FACTOR IN HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON THURSDAY
NIGHT; HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE SOURCE REGION WOULD FAVOR WARMER
LOWS AND FOG AND THUS A DECREASED FROST RISK, SO DEWPOINT TRENDS
WILL REQUIRE MONITORING FOR FUTURE UPDATES. GOING INTO FRIDAY, THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S, WITH
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN INITIATING FOLLOWING THE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW; THIS WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WARMER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND, MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE HIGH, AND
THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND; HOWEVER, THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION
AND EFFECT OF THIS FEATURE, LEADING TO INTENSE MODEL DISAGREEMENT
IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOWNSTREAM. MANY MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY, BUT
THE TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF ANY IMPULSES REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS
TIME. ACCOUNTING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES, THE
NBM HAS OUTPUT LOW-END POPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POTENTIALLY LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT IN MANY AREA VALLEYS, WHICH
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT KSME AND KLOZ. FOG ALSO CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ON RIDGETOPS SUCH AS AT KJKL, BUT IS NOT
MENTIONED IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS BEHIND THIS MORNING'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL QUICKLY BACK FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS EXPECTED
AT 10 KTS OR LESS, BEFORE DECOUPLING AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 7
KTS OR LESS WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND 15Z TUESDAY WITH THE
ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...CMC
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