330
FXUS63 KJKL 121922
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
322 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS ANOTHER CONCERN FOR FROST FORMATION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED RURAL VALLEYS
AND HOLLOWS, AWAY FROM MAINSTEM RIVERS.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND
ACCOMPANIED BY A TREND OF INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA OBSERVATIONS AFFIRM THAT
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS BURNED
OFF UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, WHICH HAS ALSO LED TO EFFICIENT
DIURNAL WARMING. AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING, TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THESE OBSERVATIONS WERE BLENDED INTO THE
FORECAST GRIDS AND THEN INTERPOLATED WITH MODEL DATA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT SPRINGTIME DAY IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S STILL FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS FRONTAL
STRUCTURE WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.
EVEN SO, SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
JUST LIGHT WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING - ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE JKL
CWA. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY VARY FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ON THE
RIDGES TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MEANWHILE,
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT GENERAL TROUGHINESS AT 5H THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE NATION TO START THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY, TO
THE NORTHEAST, ONE TROUGH IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER
IS POISED TO ENTER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LATTER TROUGH WILL
FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT DESCENDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. IT THEN PARKS ITSELF OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE ENERGY AT MID LEVELS SWEEPING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY - ALONG WITH SOME DISTINCT
HEIGHT FALLS AT 5H. GIVEN THE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS, THE NBM WAS USED AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE GRIDS. THE
MAIN ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THIS INITIALIZATION WERE TO INCLUDE POP
AND THUNDER DETAILS FROM THE LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FOR TONIGHT, LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SPREAD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH TIME, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
UNIFORM OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT ALSO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY DAWN. AS THIS
FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES INTO THE AREA, THE SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES
WILL PEAK EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT
AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY
EVENING ALONG WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT MAINLY CONSISTED OF TWEAKING
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES FOR SOME TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS FOR POPS, DID INCLUDE SOME DETAILS FROM THE LATEST
CAMS GUIDANCE FOR THE PCPN POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE
LONG RANGE PERIOD. THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
COULD LEAD TO FROST AND OR FOG ACROSS THE AREA DEPENDING ON
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY THIS LATER FROST
POTENTIAL COULD LEAD TO SOME AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS GIVEN THE LATE
NATURE OF THESE COLDER VALLEY TEMPERATURES.
THIS COOLER PATTERN IS QUITE SHORT LIVED. MOST OF FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S, AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW TAKES
HOLD. THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS EASTWARD AND WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE MAINLY NORTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND KY80, BUT IN GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING
AT RAIN CHANCES PEAKING AT 30-50 PERCENT.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO BEING QUITE WARM ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS AS HEIGHT RISES BUILD
NORTHWEST, WITH 588MB MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SURGING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM IS ON THE HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN RECORD HIGH TERRITORY FOR THE WHOLE MONTH
OF MAY, WITH THE PRIMARY ENSEMBLE MODEL BLENDS SHOWING MOST OF
THE AREA AT LESS THAN A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN
90 DEGREES ON MONDAY FOR EXAMPLE. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY
TUESDAY, WITH HOW QUICKLY A APPROACHING WAVE AND COLD FRONT MAKE
IT EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EITHER WAY THERE IS A GOOD SHOT
FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
SOME AREAS GETTING CLOSER TO 90 DEGREES ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NW TOMORROW
MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF IT, EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING YIELDS
VARIABLE, BUT BREEZY, WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THOSE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN ADOPT MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CLOSER TO SUNRISE TOMORROW. SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE INTRODUCES
LLWS IN THIS TIME FRAME, BUT THE WINDS UP TO 850MB REMAIN BELOW 30
KNOTS UNTIL DIURNAL MIXING AND SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE ALONGSIDE
THE FRONT. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR BOTH THE ONSET TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THESE WINDS, HAVE OPTED TO HANDLE THIS WITH
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS/GUSTS AFTER 08Z. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING,
BUT THE EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF THESE SHOWERS REMAINS NEBULOUS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE, SO THIS POTENTIAL HAS
BEEN HANDLED WITH PROB30S IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MARCUS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...MARCUS
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