300
FXUS63 KJKL 131745
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEARER TO THE WV BORDER.
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING IN SHELTERED RURAL VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS, AWAY FROM
MAINSTEM RIVERS.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE TO START THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN SHIFT THAT FAVORS TEMPERATURES 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 101 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE EARLIER LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAS DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE NBM IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
SOME CAM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOWS MORE LIMITED ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL LEANED TOWARD THE NBM GUIDANCE WITH SOME
INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR EDIT
NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WE CONTINUE TO TRACK A LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS JUST
SOUTH OF I-64 THIS MORNING, BUT HAVE SEEN SOME OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND SINK EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND KY 80 SEEING LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT NOTED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS WOULD BE MORE
CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN LESS ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERALL.
UPDATED POPS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO
UPDATED OTHER ELEMENT WITH THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE EXTENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, AND WINDS WERE
FRESHENED UP BASE ON RECENT OBSERVATION TRENDS AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE
HUDSON BAY VICINITY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OH VALLEY TO
SOUTHEAST CONUS. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WAS
TREKKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY. FURTHER WEST, AN UPPER
RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NORTH
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE LAKE HURON VICINITY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITH THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN PLAINS. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THERE HAD BEEN FEW IF ANY
CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN KY. HOWEVER, CLOUDS AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED. IN THIS CLEARING, VALLEYS
DECOUPLED AND TEMPERATURES DROPPED TO THE MID 40S. TEMPERATURES IN
THESE VALLEY AREAS HAVE BEGUN TO REBOUND AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING FRONT INCREASES.
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS OH TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL
KY WITH RAIN RECENTLY REPORTED IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS KCVG.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO QUEBEC
TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/UPSTATE NY TO MID ATLANTIC AND EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MEANDER TO THE
LAKE ONTARIO VICINITY DURING THIS TIME. FURTHER WEST, THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE PLAINS/CENTRAL CONUS PRECEDED BY THE
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TO MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY. 500 MB HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
FOR THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE REACHES THE ARKLATEX
REGION TO MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACHES THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY/NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS WEST INTO PARTS OF THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO OH
AND TN VALLEYS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS EASTERN KY TODAY, BUT MOISTURE
WILL BE RATHER LIMITED WITH PREFRONTAL DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LOW
TO PERHAPS MID 50S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE 70S AND
RESULT IN PREFRONTAL MUCAPE PER RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS ON THE
ORDER OF 250 J/KG TO 750 J/KG IN GENERAL, POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IN
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NEAR THE WV BORDER WHERE MORE HEATING
MAY OCCUR. MLCAPE MAY REACH AS HIGH AS ABOUT 250 TO 750 J/KG,
AGAIN THE HIGHER VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NEAR THE WV
BORDER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RATHER MEAGER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30 TO 45KT OF BULK SHEAR. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR A GUSTY STORM IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE WV BORDER THOUGH
STRONGER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE FOCUSED EAST OF EASTERN KY.
PW REMAINS RATHER LEAN MOSTLY 0.9 INCHES OR LESS AND CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY AND BE RATHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE WHICH LIMITS AVERAGE QPF. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY, WITH
SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES, AS THE FRONT NEARS
AND PASSES AS WINDS GENERALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING.
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO SLACKEN AND CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A SMALL
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD THE 40 DEGREE
MARK. SOME VALLEY FOG WHERE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL OCCURS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY, BUT A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
RESULTING IN HIGHS NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MIXING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON MIXED DEWPOINTS/CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, PERHAPS SOME LOWER 30S IN
SOME MORE EASTERN AREAS AND NEAR 40 AROUND LAKE CUMBERLAND. THIS
DRYING WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF PATCHY
FROST IN MORE RURAL VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE
LONG-RANGE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TO
SET UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A CHILLY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IN
PLACE, THIS SHOULD ALLOW FROST OR FOG FORMATION IN MANY VALLEYS AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. WITH CROSSOVER DEW
POINTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING, THE
FROST RISK IS MOST LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO VALLEYS AND SHELTERED
LOW-LYING AREAS WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT WATER SOURCE, WHEREAS THE
FOG IS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEYS ALONG MAINSTEM RIVERS AND THEIR
LARGER TRIBUTARIES. THIS FROST POTENTIAL COULD LEAD TO SOME
AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS GIVEN THE LATE NATURE OF THESE COLDER VALLEY
TEMPERATURES.
THIS COOLER PATTERN IS QUITE SHORT-LIVED. MOST OF FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW TAKES HOLD.
THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS EASTWARD AND A WARM FRONT
PUSHES NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE MAINLY NORTH.
IN GENERAL, WE ARE LOOKING AT RAIN CHANCES PEAKING AT 30 TO 60
PERCENT, LOWEST NEAR THE TN-KY BORDER AND HIGHEST NORTH OF I-64.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO BEING QUITE WARM ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS OCCURS AS HEIGHT RISES BUILD
NORTHWEST, WITH 588 DAM HEIGHTS SURGING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM IS ON THE HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, SHOWING
TEMPERATURES RIVALING ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY ENSEMBLE MODEL BLENDS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA AT
LESS THAN A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY, FOR EXAMPLE. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY IN TUESDAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES REGARDING HOW QUICKLY AN APPROACHING WAVE AND COLD
FRONT MAKE IT EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EITHER WAY, THERE IS A
GOOD SHOT FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH SOME AREAS GETTING CLOSER TO 90 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
ALL SITES ARE STARTING OFF THE PERIOD VFR AND MOST WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT NOTED TO OUR NORTHWEST IS
SLATED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
COULD HELP TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE BEEN
ON THE DECLINE IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY MAINTAINED SOME
PROB30 FOR LOWER VIS AND CIG POTENTIAL AT JKL AND SJS TAFS GIVEN
THIS POTENTIAL, BUT ON THE LOWER CONFIDENCE SIDE. THE BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING PRECIPITATION IS MORE IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE THE INCREASING
WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
DIMINISH GENERALLY AFTER 00Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ/GEERTSON
AVIATION...DJ
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