019
FXUS63 KJKL 131907
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEARER TO THE WV BORDER.
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING IN SHELTERED RURAL VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS, AWAY FROM
MAINSTEM RIVERS.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE TO START THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN SHIFT THAT FAVORS TEMPERATURES 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STILL TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS AN INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS THAT
HAVE RE-FIRED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THESE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON
ANY ACTIVITY BECOMING STRONG GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAKER
ENVIRONMENT. DID KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST UNTIL THIS BOUNDARY MOVES EAST. THE WINDS HAVE ALSO
BEEN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES IN MOST LOCATIONS, BUT SOME INDICATION FOR A FEW CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH IN THE FAR EAST. GIVEN THE CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT
IN THE 5 DEGREE RANGE.
THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HREF SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLAT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS COOLER DAY AND
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COOLER NIGHT. THESE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WILL LEAD
TO MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ON THE RIDGES. GIVEN THIS MAINTAINED SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND
PERHAPS SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE
LONG-RANGE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TO
SET UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A CHILLY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IN
PLACE, THIS SHOULD ALLOW FROST OR FOG FORMATION IN MANY VALLEYS AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. WITH CROSSOVER DEW
POINTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING, THE
FROST RISK IS MOST LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO VALLEYS AND SHELTERED
LOW-LYING AREAS WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT WATER SOURCE, WHEREAS THE
FOG IS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEYS ALONG MAINSTEM RIVERS AND THEIR
LARGER TRIBUTARIES. THIS FROST POTENTIAL COULD LEAD TO SOME
AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS GIVEN THE LATE NATURE OF THESE COLDER VALLEY
TEMPERATURES.
THIS COOLER PATTERN IS QUITE SHORT-LIVED. MOST OF FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW TAKES HOLD.
THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS EASTWARD AND A WARM FRONT
PUSHES NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE MAINLY NORTH.
IN GENERAL, WE ARE LOOKING AT RAIN CHANCES PEAKING AT 30 TO 60
PERCENT, LOWEST NEAR THE TN-KY BORDER AND HIGHEST NORTH OF I-64.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO BEING QUITE WARM ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS OCCURS AS HEIGHT RISES BUILD
NORTHWEST, WITH 588 DAM HEIGHTS SURGING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM IS ON THE HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, SHOWING
TEMPERATURES RIVALING ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY ENSEMBLE MODEL BLENDS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA AT
LESS THAN A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY, FOR EXAMPLE. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY IN TUESDAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES REGARDING HOW QUICKLY AN APPROACHING WAVE AND COLD
FRONT MAKE IT EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EITHER WAY, THERE IS A
GOOD SHOT FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH SOME AREAS GETTING CLOSER TO 90 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
ALL SITES ARE STARTING OFF THE PERIOD VFR AND MOST WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT NOTED TO OUR NORTHWEST IS
SLATED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
COULD HELP TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE BEEN
ON THE DECLINE IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY MAINTAINED SOME
PROB30 FOR LOWER VIS AND CIG POTENTIAL AT JKL AND SJS TAFS GIVEN
THIS POTENTIAL, BUT ON THE LOWER CONFIDENCE SIDE. THE BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING PRECIPITATION IS MORE IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE THE INCREASING
WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
DIMINISH GENERALLY AFTER 00Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...DJ/GEERTSON
AVIATION...DJ
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