415
FXUS63 KJKL 140358
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1158 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING IN SHELTERED RURAL VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS, AWAY FROM
MAINSTEM RIVERS.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE TO START THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN SHIFT THAT FAVORS TEMPERATURES 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE 40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS DEPARTED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TAKING THE RISK
OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. IN ITS WAKE, A
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE IS USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, JUST UPDATED
FORECAST AND HWO TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STILL TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS AN INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS THAT
HAVE RE-FIRED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THESE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON
ANY ACTIVITY BECOMING STRONG GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAKER
ENVIRONMENT. DID KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST UNTIL THIS BOUNDARY MOVES EAST. THE WINDS HAVE ALSO
BEEN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES IN MOST LOCATIONS, BUT SOME INDICATION FOR A FEW CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH IN THE FAR EAST. GIVEN THE CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT
IN THE 5 DEGREE RANGE.
THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HREF SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLAT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS COOLER DAY AND
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COOLER NIGHT. THESE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WILL LEAD
TO MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ON THE RIDGES. GIVEN THIS MAINTAINED SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND
PERHAPS SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 542 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT'S
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW ANY LINGERING VALLEY
FOG TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOR AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RECOVER TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS LIGHT WINDS VEER TOWARDS A MORE
SOUTHERLY ORIENTATION. IT WILL FEEL QUITE PLEASANT OUTSIDE, WITH
MIXED DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS. WHILE THE RESULTANT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CORRESPOND WITH NEAR-
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS, THE LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS LIGHT AND ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS PARENT RIDGING FEATURES
ALOFT LOOK TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE CONUS THIS WEEKEND. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS RIDGE AND INTO THE GREATER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL PROGRESSIVELY
PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS INITIAL CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY TO BE VERY DEEP OR VERY
STRONG, AND DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER, IT MAY BE ELEVATED OVER A NOCTURNAL RADIATION INVERSION.
RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUITE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE QUICKER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST IMPULSE ALOFT, AND THE RESULTANT TIMING
UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY PRECLUDES THE EXPLICIT MENTION OF RIDGE-VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLITS IN FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST GRIDS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING, INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS
SHOULD RELEGATE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO SEASONABLY MILD READINGS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER, A POST-MIDNIGHT ARRIVAL WOULD ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH TIME FOR VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET, AND THIS HAS BEEN
REALIZED IN RECENT ANALOGOUS SET UPS.
THE PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEHIND FRIDAY NIGHT'S BOUNDARY WILL PUMP A WARM, MOIST
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO
STALL OUT BY MIDDAY, BUT A SECOND, REINFORCING DISTURBANCES ARRIVES
LATER THAT AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERS ADDITIONAL STORMS. SATURDAY DOES
NOT LOOK LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASHOUT THOUGH, AS THIS SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL HAVE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ON SATURDAY THAN
THEY DID ON FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS
PRESENT. THE LREF DEPICTS A SOUTH-NORTH GRADIENT OF 500-1000 J/KG OF
CAPE, BUT WITH INCREASING CIN THE CLOSER ONE GETS TO THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATER CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY, WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHERE TO
THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS OVERLAPS WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY, BUT THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE DYNAMICS ALOFT DOES NOT FAVOR SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THUS, SATURDAY'S CONVECTION APPEARS PULSY, WITH
A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE
STRONGEST CELLS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE TRENDS AND RADAR DATA WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
ONCE THE BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE AREA'S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY
BY THE FURTHER-STRENGTHENING RIDGE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK FURTHER
AND FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS TROUGHING DIGS DEEPER INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUCH A SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND, AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE FAVORS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND EFFICIENT DIURNAL WARMING PROCESSES ON BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC BASELINE NBM DATA HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO HOT IN THIS TIME FRAME, BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
90S ON SUNDAY. TAKING A LOOK AT THE BROADER PROBABILISTIC FORECAST
ENVELOPE, TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO REACH THE 90S ON MONDAY
THAN ON SUNDAY. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS REACH THEIR MAXIMA ON MONDAY, AND
THERE IS GREATER PROBABILISTIC SUPPORT FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF
OF THE 90S BY THEN. IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AND WPC,
HIGHS WERE CAPPED IN THE UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY AND BELOW 95 ON MONDAY.
RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DARK
ON BOTH DAYS.
WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT FAVORS EFFICIENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
RIDGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY
ASSOCIATED HEAT RISK CONCERNS, BUT RECORD HIGHS AT THE KJKL AND KLOZ
CLIMATE SITES ARE STILL IN JEOPARDY. THE TIMING OF THIS EARLY-SEASON
HEAT COINCIDENTALLY ALIGNS WITH THE 2026 NATIONAL INTEGRATED HEAT
HEALTH INFORMATION SYSTEM'S HEAT SAFETY WEEK CAMPAIGN. INTERESTS ARE
ACCORDINGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR OFFICIAL NWS SOCIAL MEDIA CHANNELS
TO LEARN MORE ABOUT HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS AND HEAT SAFETY TIPS NEXT
WEEK.
DEEPER TROUGHING EMERGES IN THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ORIENTS THE
FLOW IN MANNER THAT GIVES OUR AREA BETTER ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.
AS THE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDING SURFACE LOW EJECT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KENTUCKY. THAT BOUNDARY
IS LIKELY TO STALL OUT TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA, BUT THE RETURN FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THE
GREATER HUMIDITY IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL CORRESPOND WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, SO TEMPERATURES READINGS ON THE THERMOMETER
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WILL COMBINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
OPEN WARM SECTOR STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST, AND
THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD FACILITATE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY
APPROPRIATE TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 839 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
ALL TERMINALS WERE VFR AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT DEPARTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. PATCHY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
SHOULD DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WHILE WINDS
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT UNDER 10 KTS. A LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CLOUD FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AND
THICKEN INTO A CEILING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY FOR
TERMINALS EAST OF I-75.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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