742
FXUS63 KJKL 140909
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
509 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN SHELTERED RURAL VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS, AWAY FROM MAINSTEM
RIVERS.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE TO START THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN SHIFT THAT FAVORS TEMPERATURES 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE 40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS DEPARTED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TAKING THE RISK
OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. IN ITS WAKE, A
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE IS USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, JUST UPDATED
FORECAST AND HWO TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STILL TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS AN INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS THAT
HAVE RE-FIRED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THESE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON
ANY ACTIVITY BECOMING STRONG GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAKER
ENVIRONMENT. DID KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST UNTIL THIS BOUNDARY MOVES EAST. THE WINDS HAVE ALSO
BEEN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES IN MOST LOCATIONS, BUT SOME INDICATION FOR A FEW CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH IN THE FAR EAST. GIVEN THE CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT
IN THE 5 DEGREE RANGE.
THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HREF SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLAT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS COOLER DAY AND
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COOLER NIGHT. THESE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WILL LEAD
TO MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ON THE RIDGES. GIVEN THIS MAINTAINED SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND
PERHAPS SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS PARENT RIDGING FEATURES
ALOFT LOOK TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE CONUS THIS WEEKEND, LEAVING
MUCH OF KENTUCKY IN RETURN FLOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES EJECTING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE AND INTO THE GREATER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL PROGRESSIVELY
PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY ON SATURDAY
MORNING.
THE PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEHIND FRIDAY NIGHT'S BOUNDARY WILL PUMP A WARM, MOIST
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO
STALL OUT BY MIDDAY, BUT A SECOND, REINFORCING DISTURBANCES ARRIVES
LATER THAT AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERS ADDITIONAL STORMS. SATURDAY DOES
NOT LOOK LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASHOUT THOUGH, AS THIS SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL HAVE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ON SATURDAY THAN
THEY DID ON FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS
PRESENT. THE LREF DEPICTS A SOUTH-NORTH GRADIENT OF 500-1000 J/KG OF
CAPE, BUT WITH INCREASING CIN THE CLOSER ONE GETS TO THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATER CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY, WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHERE TO
THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS OVERLAPS WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY, BUT THE RATHER WEAK
NATURE OF THE DYNAMICS ALOFT DOES NOT FAVOR SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR,
25KT PER 00Z LREF MEAN FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THUS,
SATURDAY'S CONVECTION APPEARS PULSY, WITH A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL,
GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGEST CELLS.
SOME RECENT GEFS AND ENS BASED AI SEVERE CONVECTIVE HAZARD
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES INTO THE OH
VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF THE ANTICIPATED BOUNDARY. SPC HAS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A DAY 3
MARGINAL RISK. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
ONCE THE BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE AREA'S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY
BY THE FURTHER-STRENGTHENING RIDGE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK FURTHER
AND FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS TROUGHING DIGS DEEPER INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUCH A SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND, AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE FAVORS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND EFFICIENT DIURNAL WARMING PROCESSES ON BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC BASELINE NBM DATA HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO HOT IN THIS TIME FRAME, BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
90S ON SUNDAY. TAKING A LOOK AT THE BROADER PROBABILISTIC FORECAST
ENVELOPE, TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO REACH THE 90S ON MONDAY
THAN ON SUNDAY. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS REACH THEIR MAXIMA ON MONDAY, AND
THERE IS GREATER PROBABILISTIC SUPPORT FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF
OF THE 90S BY THEN. FOLLOWING CONTINUED COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS AND WPC, HIGHS WERE CAPPED IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ON SUNDAY AND BELOW 95 ON MONDAY. RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS
AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH NIGHTS WITH THE RIDGING
DOMINATING.
WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT FAVORS EFFICIENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
RIDGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
MAGNITUDE OF ANY ASSOCIATED HEAT RISK CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY TO
MONDAY. HOWEVER, RECORD HIGHS AT THE KJKL AND KLOZ CLIMATE SITES
COULD BE THREATENED. THE TIMING OF THIS EARLY-SEASON HEAT
COINCIDENTALLY ALIGNS WITH THE 2026 NATIONAL INTEGRATED HEAT
HEALTH INFORMATION SYSTEM'S HEAT SAFETY WEEK CAMPAIGN. INTERESTS
ARE ACCORDINGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR OFFICIAL NWS SOCIAL MEDIA
CHANNELS TO LEARN MORE ABOUT HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS AND HEAT SAFETY
TIPS NEXT WEEK.
DEEPER TROUGHING EMERGES IN THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND ORIENTS THE
FLOW IN MANNER THAT GIVES OUR AREA BETTER ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.
AS THE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDING SURFACE LOW EJECT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KENTUCKY. THAT BOUNDARY
IS LIKELY TO STALL OUT TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA, BUT THE RETURN FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS AROUND OR IN
EXCESS OF 60. THE GREATER HUMIDITY IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
CORRESPOND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER, SO TEMPERATURES READINGS
ON THE THERMOMETER WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT OCCURS ON MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WILL COMBINE WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OPEN WARM SECTOR STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. POPS INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTHEAST, AND THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD FACILITATE A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY APPROPRIATE TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
TAF SITES AND NON TAF SITES WERE VFR AT TAF ISSUANCE. SOME PATCHY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERED ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES,
HOWEVER. THIS PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS WINDS AVERAGE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10KT. A LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CLOUD FIELD THAT EVENTUALLY IS MORE SOLIDLY IN THE LOWER END OF
THE VFR RANGE MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM OH TOWARD
12Z AND COULD THICKEN INTO A CEILING FOR ALL BUT KLOZ AND KSME.
ANY LOW CLOUDS/CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD 00Z AND GIVE WAY TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. VALLEY FOG WITH REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR
EVENT IFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
TAF LOCATIONS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...MARCUS/JMW/JP
MARCUS AVIATION...JP
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