027
FXUS63 KJKL 142011
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
411 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN VALLEYS OF FAR EASTERN KY, MAINLY AWAY FROM RIVERS.
- A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES TO START THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN SHIFT THAT FAVORS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
A DEEP UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MOVING EAST, WHILE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. FAIR WX CU WHICH PROLIFERATED WITH
DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND LEAVE US WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES, AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR, THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO UNSEASONABLY COOL READINGS. THE COLDEST
VALLEYS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA COULD SEE A BIT OF
FROST, BUT IF IT OCCURS IT'S LIKELY TO BE SPARSE AND LIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIPS TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE WEAKENING
RIDGE ALOFT PASSES OVER. LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW WHAT SUNSHINE THERE IS TO BE MORE
EFFECT AT RAISING TEMPERATURES, AND A SIZABLE CLIMB WELL INTO THE
70S IS FORECAST. HOWEVER, SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.
LOWER LEVEL FLOW AND WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND OUR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE A MEMORY. WEAK WAVES IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME PRECIP BY DAWN ON
SATURDAY, BUT IT REMAINS MORE PROBABLE TO OUR NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE, BUT THERE WERE
CEILINGS MAINLY IN THE 3.5-5K FT AGL RANGE GENERALLY NEAR/EAST OF
I-75. THE CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO FINISH
THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...HAL
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