346
FXUS63 KJKL 150322
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1122 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN KY, MAINLY AWAY FROM RIVERS.
- A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES TO START THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN SHIFT THAT FAVORS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1122 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID 30S WITH PATCHY FROST IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOW-
LYING AREAS AWAY FROM RIVERS, AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE. FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE PRIMARY CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN MANY AREAS AS THERMOMETERS WERE
ALREADY RUNNING 2 TO 3 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST FOR MOST. AN
SPS FOR PATCHY FROST HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED WITH A FOCUS ON SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS AWAY FROM THE PROTECTIVE NIGHTTIME FOG LIKELY
TO FORM IN THOSE VALLEYS ALONG LARGER WATER BODIES (IE. LAKES,
RIVERS, LARGER CREEKS).
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
A DEEP UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MOVING EAST, WHILE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. FAIR WX CU WHICH PROLIFERATED WITH
DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND LEAVE US WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES, AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR, THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO UNSEASONABLY COOL READINGS. THE COLDEST
VALLEYS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA COULD SEE A BIT OF
FROST, BUT IF IT OCCURS IT'S LIKELY TO BE SPARSE AND LIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIPS TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE WEAKENING
RIDGE ALOFT PASSES OVER. LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW WHAT SUNSHINE THERE IS TO BE MORE
EFFECT AT RAISING TEMPERATURES, AND A SIZABLE CLIMB WELL INTO THE
70S IS FORECAST. HOWEVER, SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.
LOWER LEVEL FLOW AND WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND OUR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE A MEMORY. WEAK WAVES IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME PRECIP BY DAWN ON
SATURDAY, BUT IT REMAINS MORE PROBABLE TO OUR NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 536 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A PATTERN SHIFT AND
A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND. ON SATURDAY, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREATER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THESE IMPULSES WILL PROGRESSIVELY DRAG A SURFACE WARM FRONT
FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND BY SATURDAY NIGHT,
THE AREA LOOKS TO BE FIRMLY POSITIONED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. AS
THAT RIDGE AXIS NUDGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK,
INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE POINT TOWARDS A
PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE JEOPARDY BY MONDAY, BUT BEFORE THIS UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IS
REALIZED, EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL EXPERIENCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS ON SATURDAY MORNING, MODELS COLLECTIVELY
RESOLVE THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK, SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT TO BREEZIER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE AM HOURS.
THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE STACKED UP TO THE 850MB LEVEL IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, RESULTING IN
RELATIVELY GREATER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN THERE.
FORECAST HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S AREA WIDE, BUT
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE LIMITED TO THOSE NW LOCALES. AS SUCH,
MODELS RESOLVE A SE->NW INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LREF ENSEMBLE RESOLVES A MEAN 500-1000
J/KG OF CAPE TO THE NW OF THE KY-80 CORRIDOR, WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES NORTH OF I-64. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A NEARBY WARM
FRONT/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE
ON SATURDAY EVENING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR PARCELS TO
RISE. APPROXIMATELY 30 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR
THE MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS TO ORGANIZE/ROTATE, BUT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER RISK APPEARS BOTH CONDITIONAL AND MARGINAL IN THE JKL CWA.
AM CLOUD COVER COULD CUT INTO THE AMOUNT OF REALIZED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY, AND THE FURTHER SE ONE GOES IN THE FORECAST AREA, THE
DRIER THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE. MODELS COLLECTIVELY RESOLVE A WEAK
CAPPING INVERSION AND 100-150 J/KG OF CIN ACROSS THE AREA, AND IT IS
UNCLEAR IF THE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THIS CAP. POPS HAVE
DECREASED RELATIVE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
IN OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. SPC HAS ACCORDINGLY MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1/5) RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THERE, WITH GUSTY TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. TRENDS
IN SATURDAY'S CONVECTIVE PARAMETER SPACING AND THE POSITIONING OF THE
PARENT BOUNDARY WILL BE MONITORED AS THIS EVENT ENTERS THE TEMPORAL
RANGE OF HIGHER-RESOLUTION, CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS, BUT THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
SET UP.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE AREA'S SENSIBLE WEATHER FALLS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING SE CONUS RIDGE. EXPECT ANY DIURNAL
CUMULUS/CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET AND FOR RIDGES
AND VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AS A RESULT. RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY IF GROUNDS ARE WET FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION, BUT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT PARTICULARLY LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WHILE IT IS TRUE THAT THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN FAVORS A POTENT
WARMING TREND, THE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY HUMID. EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING
SHOULD LEAD TO 25-35 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS, WHICH WILL WORK TO
MITIGATE THE AREA'S HEATRISK. THE BASELINE DETERMINISTIC NBM MAXT
GUIDANCE REMAINS ON THE UPPER BOUND OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE EARLY
NEXT WEEK, SO HIGHS WERE ONCE AGAIN LOWERED IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
ON SUNDAY AND THEN TOWARDS THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S ON MONDAY, BUT
APPARENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL
THERMOMETER READINGS. THOSE READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD
HIGH VALUES FOR MAY 17TH AND MAY 18TH AT THE KJKL AND KLOZ CLIMATE
SITES, AND THEY ARE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR
MID-MAY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. WHILE IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
OUTSIDE, IT WILL NOT BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. COINCIDENTALLY
THOUGH, THIS EARLY-SEASON HEAT ALIGNS WITH THE 2026 NATIONAL
INTEGRATED HEAT HEALTH INFORMATION SYSTEM'S HEAT SAFETY WEEK
CAMPAIGN. INTERESTS ARE ACCORDINGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR OUR
OFFICE'S SOCIAL MEDIA CHANNELS TO LEARN MORE ABOUT LOCAL HEAT
HEADLINE CRITERIA, HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, AND HEAT SAFETY/MITIGATION
TIPS FROM MONDAY TO FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE EARLY WEEK HEAT IS NOT FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, THE CONSENSUS IS FOR DEEPER TROUGHING TO EMERGE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE COMMONWEALTH, BUT THE ANTECEDENT RIDGING WILL BE
SLOW TO WEAN. INCREASINGLY DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD RESULT IN A FETCH OFF THE GULF AND MORE
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN BY MIDWEEK. THIS YIELDS INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND THE RETURN OF LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY,
WHICH INTRODUCES CASCADING UNCERTAINTY INTO TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. IF SKIES STAY SUNNIER AND THE CHANCE POPS DON'T COME TO
FRUITION, TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES COULD RIVAL MONDAY'S. CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A COOLING TREND. HOWEVER, THE LATE-WEEK SENSIBLE
WEATHER FORECAST DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM. IF THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT AMIDST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT, WE COULD SEE A WET END TO THE WORK WEEK. IF A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES ROOT, TEMPERATURES COULD COOL BACK TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. EITHER WAY, INTERESTED PARTIES ARE ENCOURAGED
TO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE, AS A LINGERING CU
FIELD DISSIPATES WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME, SME HAS THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY FOG LATE IN THE NIGHT, THOUGH LOZ WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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