035
FXUS63 KJKL 150737
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
337 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVES TO START THIS WEEKEND,
FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN SHIFT THAT FAVORS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, MAINLY FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY, WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER,
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. A STRAY SHOWER OR A FEW
SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN OFFICIAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING, BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM
THE WEST TOWARD DAWN, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER IN THE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF KY HIGHWAY 80. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXES
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES, WITH INSTABILITY
INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SUPPORTING A MARGINAL (ISOLATED)
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
TODAY, WEAK YET GRADUALLY INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING,
BUT WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION THIS EVENING AND PARTIAL CLEARING,
LARGE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE UPPER CUMBERLAND VALLEY, WHERE LOWS MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
OTHERWISE, 50S ON RIDGES AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS
ARE FORECAST. HIGHS JUMP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO
OVERDRIVE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A PATTERN SHIFT
AND A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND. AS A SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE AXIS
NUDGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE POINT
TOWARDS A PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY BY MONDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT, SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BECOME SHUNTED WELL NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER, WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY PLANTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR. POPS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING, WITH MORE
SUSTAINED CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT WITH TIME. WHILE IT IS TRUE THAT
THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN FAVORS A POTENT WARMING TREND, THE
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY HUMID. EFFICIENT
DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO 25 TO 35 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS, WHICH WILL WORK TO MITIGATE THE HEATRISK VALUES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE BASELINE DETERMINISTIC NBM MAXT GUIDANCE
REMAINS ON THE UPPER BOUND OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SO HIGHS WERE ONCE AGAIN LOWERED IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S ON SUNDAY AND THEN TOWARDS THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S ON
MONDAY, BUT APPARENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL THERMOMETER READINGS. THOSE READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
RECORD HIGH VALUES FOR MAY 17TH AND MAY 18TH AT THE KJKL AND KLOZ
CLIMATE SITES, AND THEY ARE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR MID-MAY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. WHILE IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER OUTSIDE, IT WILL NOT BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. COINCIDENTALLY THOUGH, THIS EARLY-SEASON HEAT ALIGNS
WITH THE 2026 NATIONAL INTEGRATED HEAT HEALTH INFORMATION SYSTEM'S
HEAT SAFETY WEEK CAMPAIGN. INTERESTS ARE ACCORDINGLY ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR OUR OFFICE'S SOCIAL MEDIA CHANNELS TO LEARN MORE ABOUT
LOCAL HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA, HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, AND HEAT
SAFETY/MITIGATION TIPS FROM MONDAY TO FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE EARLY WEEK HEAT IS NOT FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, THE CONSENSUS IS FOR DEEPER TROUGHING TO EMERGE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE COMMONWEALTH, BUT THE ANTECEDENT RIDGING WILL BE
SLOW TO WANE. INCREASINGLY DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD RESULT IN A FETCH OFF THE GULF AND MORE
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN BY MIDWEEK. THIS YIELDS INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND THE RETURN OF LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY,
WHICH INTRODUCES CASCADING UNCERTAINTY INTO TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. IF SKIES STAY SUNNIER AND THE CHANCE POPS DON'T COME TO
FRUITION, TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES COULD RIVAL MONDAY'S. CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A COOLING TREND. HOWEVER, THE LATE-WEEK SENSIBLE
WEATHER FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM. IF THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT AMIDST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT, WE COULD SEE A WET END TO THE WORK WEEK. IF A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES ROOT, TEMPERATURES COULD COOL BACK TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. EITHER WAY, INTERESTED PARTIES ARE ENCOURAGED
TO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY NIGHTTIME/MORNING VALLEY FOG. AT
THIS TIME, SME HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY FOG
THROUGH 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING, THOUGH LOZ WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH WIND SPEEDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS/JKL
AVIATION...CMC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page