142
FXUS63 KJKL 151824
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
224 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES TO START THE
WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN SHIFT THAT FAVORS MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, MAINLY FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
HIGH CLOUDS ARE APPARENTLY THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS BACK A
LITTLE. THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWER SLIGHTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1034 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
ADJUSTED SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
MIDWEST MCS MOVING THROUGH MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA
UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES LOWER IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS, BUT OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE IN WAY OF MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY, WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER,
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. A STRAY SHOWER OR A FEW
SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN OFFICIAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING, BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM
THE WEST TOWARD DAWN, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER IN THE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF KY HIGHWAY 80. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXES
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES, WITH INSTABILITY
INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SUPPORTING A MARGINAL (ISOLATED)
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
TODAY, WEAK YET GRADUALLY INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING,
BUT WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION THIS EVENING AND PARTIAL CLEARING,
LARGE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE UPPER CUMBERLAND VALLEY, WHERE LOWS MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
OTHERWISE, 50S ON RIDGES AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS
ARE FORECAST. HIGHS JUMP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO
OVERDRIVE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THE AREA IS
SITUATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE, FOLLOWING
A WARM FRONT THAT LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WITHIN THIS WARM SECTOR, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST;
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL RIVAL
THE STANDING RECORDS OF 87, 88, AND 88 AT JKL, AND 89, 90, AND 90 AT
LOZ FOR EACH RESPECTIVE DAY. FORTUNATELY, DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BECAUSE THESE DEW POINTS ARE
RELATIVELY LOW FOR SUCH HEAT, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY
FEEL A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH HAS BEEN LARGELY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS TRANSITION
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS ACTIVE PATTERN
TAKES HOLD, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE STARTING WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S; THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS SHIFT BRINGS MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL TO ALLEVIATE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, TOTAL QPF THROUGH
THE PERIOD IS LESS THAN ONE INCH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
AMOUNT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ONLY MINIMAL RELIEF TO THE EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION DEFICIT.
IN SUMMARY, THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL RESEMBLE JULY AS
NEAR-RECORD HEAT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT
ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION, BRINGING PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS. DESPITE THE RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DROUGHT-BUSTING RAINFALL
EVENT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AREA WIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS (INCLUDING KIOB AND
KSYM) FROM LATE MORNING ON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL
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