201
FXUS63 KJKL 301145 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO A
RISK OF HIGH WATER, ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A MOUNT VERNON TO MANCHESTER TO WHITESBURG LINE THROUGH
MORNING.
- AFTER 24 HOURS, OR SO, OF DRYING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL RETURN TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY FOR SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THE FRONT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SINKING BACK SOUTHWEST, BUT UNTIL IT
DOES, EXCESSIVE RAINS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM SLOW MOVING EFFICIENT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST THE INCLUSION OF THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY/POP ELEMENTS. THESE
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WHILE WE NOTE A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS PATTERN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN ENTIRELY
DIFFERENT TYPE OF NIGHT FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE JKL CWA. TO THE
NORTHEAST: WE HAVE THINNER HIGH CLOUDS AND A DRIER AIR MASS
ALLOWING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AT THE SAME
TIME TO THE SOUTHEAST: THAT FRONT IS KEEPING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.
SPECIFICALLY, TEMPERATURES CURRENT VARY FROM NEAR 50 DEGREES IN
THE SHELTERED NORTHEAST HOLLOWS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, DEWPOINTS RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 IN THOSE COLDER NORTHEAST SPOTS TO THE LOW 70S IN
THE MUGGY SOUTHWEST. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH DUE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ALOFT, THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THEY ALL DEPICT A BIT OF AN 5H OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. EASTERN KENTUCKY IS CAUGHT ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF
THE CENTER RIDGE BETWEEN SHARP TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE EASTERN POLE OF THE BLOCK MOVES FURTHER AWAY TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE WESTERN ONE LIFTS MAINLY NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. IN THIS MANNER, THE ORIGINAL BLOCK BREAKS DOWN
AND NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND OVER
KENTUCKY WITH SOME WEAK ENERGY WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ALOFT, THE NBM WAS USED
AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH LITTLE CHANGES
NEEDED. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO ADD HIGHER RESOLUTION TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DETAILS FOR THE POP GRIDS TODAY AND LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE CAMS GUIDANCE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES THIS WEATHER DICHOTOMY CONTINUING TODAY
AS THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND CONVECTION CONTINUE FOR THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HUMID AND STICKY
CONDITIONS. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED NORTHEAST WILL SEE MORE
PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TIMES OF SUNSHINE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY. WITH TIME, THE DRIER AIR WILL WIN OUT OVER THE REST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SHIFT THE HUMID AIR MASS AND ITS CONVECTIVE
THREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR A DRY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. IN FACT, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRYING AND
CLEARING OF THE SKIES FOR A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT TO SET UP ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR SUNDAY,
THOUGH, THAT BOUNDARY STARTS TO SHIFT BACK NORTHEAST RETURNING
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO THE AREA - STARTING IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT MAINLY CONSISTED OF
INCLUDING SOME OF THE POP AND THUNDER DETAILS FROM THE LATEST CAMS
GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS, THEY WERE ADJUSTED FOR TERRAIN ASPECTS TONIGHT GIVEN
THE BRIEFLY DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHEN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD OPENS ON SUNDAY EVENING,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING IN
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. AFTER A PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
RECHARGES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE COMMONWEALTH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
SHOULD DRAG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THAT BOUNDARY'S INFLUENCE, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
GIVES CREDENCE TO THE NOTION THAT THE GREATEST RAIN POTENTIAL IS IN
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD INSULATE
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. NORTHERN VALLEYS COULD
DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET, BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY, TOPOGRAPHY-BASED EDITS WERE LIMITED TO MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE PERIOD.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT LOOKS TO AMPLIFY HEADED INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUITE COLLECTIVELY RESOLVES AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE TWO DISTINCT TROUGHS
DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THAT
EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS ON MONDAY, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND ITS BACKSIDE AND INTO THE VICINITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS, THE PROXIMITY OF THE
BOUNDARY, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY, WPC HAS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK ON MONDAY FOR
COUNTIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE. THANKFULLY, THE IMPULSES
ALOFT WILL SHUNT THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY
EVENING AND PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGIME OF VERTICALLY-
STACKED NORTHERLY FLOW.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN PRODUCED BY THE THREE SYNOPTIC FEATURES DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL
STEADILY BREAK DOWN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HERE IN EASTERN KY, THIS
INITIALLY PLACES US ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OVER NEW ENGLAND, WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE SITUATED
UPSTREAM. THE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF BOTH WILL LEAVE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS MEANS THAT A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IS POISED TO DOMINATE THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY NEXT WEEK.
TOPOGRAPHY-DEPENDENT FORECAST INTRICACIES WILL BE ON DISPLAY NEXT
WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS PROBABLE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER THERE IS
ACCESS TO A MOISTURE SOURCE, BE IT ANTECEDENTLY WET GROUNDS OR A
NEARBY RIVER/CREEK/STREAM. THE EXACT VALUES OF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL MIXING THAT IS
REALIZED. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM USED TO POPULATE THE LONG TERM GRIDS
IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHEN IT COMES
TO DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. DRY AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASINGLY
EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING MAY CULMINATE IN DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S CURRENT DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS. THE CURRENTLY
AVAILABLE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND EXPLICITLY-MIXED SFC->30MB AGL
DEWPOINT MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S ARE PLAUSIBLE IN THIS PATTERN. LIGHT WINDS AND RECENTLY-WET
FUELS SHOULD CURTAIL ANY RESULTANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, SO THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THESE DRIER DEWPOINTS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SHELTERED/SHADED VALLEYS AND THE
FACT THAT IT WILL FEEL FANTASTIC OUTSIDE NEXT WEEK. MAXTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH LREF
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK REMAINING BELOW THE
50% THRESHOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THANKS TO THE LOW MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS, APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EQUIVALENT TO THE SEASONABLY COOL VALUES OBSERVED ON THE
THERMOMETERS. THUS, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, THE MID-WEEK WEATHER
FORECAST LOOKS IDEAL FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT INTERESTS MIGHT
HAVE PLANNED.
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FULLY BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A FLATTENING RIDGE EVENTUALLY SETTLING
INTO THE SE CONUS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RELATED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THESE
SYNOPTICS (THE GFS SUITE WANTS TO KEEP THE EAST COAST TROUGHING
AROUND FOR LONGER), IT SHOULD YIELD A LATE-WEEK WARMING TREND AND A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 80S AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY (60-
80% CHANCE IN THE LATEST LREF DATA), AND WITH THE WARMTH COMES THE
RETURN OF SUMMERTIME POPS. WHILE THE FORECAST DOES NOT CURRENTLY
CALL FOR A WEEK-END WASHOUT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POP-UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER STARTS ON MONDAY, JUNE 1ST,
AND THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST MEETS THE MOMENT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A FRONT OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO SINK
BACK SOUTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS THE FOCAL POINT FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. PROB30, PREVAILING, AND TEMPO
GROUPS WERE USED TO COVER THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AT LOZ AND SME
WITH THUNDER CHANCES MENTIONED, AS WELL. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA TOWARD MIDDAY, FORCING THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE.
THIS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GREIF
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