390
FXUS63 KJKL 301927
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
327 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MTN
PARKWAY FOR SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AT 18Z MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SEEN TRAVERSING THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. PREVIOUSLY A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AND HAS NOW STALLED NEAR THE TENNESSEE
BORDER. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN THE REGION OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AREA IS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A 500-MB OMEGA BLOCK RIDGE. CURRENTLY, DEW POINTS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT (NORTH OF SOMERSET AND LONDON) ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. AHEAD OF THE STALLED FRONT (SOUTH OF SOMERSET AND LONDON) THE
DEW POINTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN, DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 40S THIS EVENING. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING, AND LIGHT WINDS,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
IN THE NORTH, AND MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. COLDEST
AREAS WILL BE THE SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS OF THE
LICKING AND BIG SANDY. SOME VALLEYS COULD DEVELOP PATCHY FOG LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH ENOUGH CLEARING.
SUNDAY, AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN SOME, MOISTURE IS
ABLE TO SURGE BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, WINDS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A FEW HOURS. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL WORK BACK INTO SOUTHERN
POTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CAPE OF OF
1000-1500 J/KG MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ALONG WITH
SHOWERS, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS/KY HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR.
THE WPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE COUNTIES BORDERING TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED, WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH
GRADIENT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
MENTIONED EARLIER CREEPS BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. SHOWER CHANCES
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TO
CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF MAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHEN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD OPENS ON SUNDAY EVENING,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING IN
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. AFTER A PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
RECHARGES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE COMMONWEALTH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
SHOULD DRAG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THAT BOUNDARY'S INFLUENCE, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
GIVES CREDENCE TO THE NOTION THAT THE GREATEST RAIN POTENTIAL IS IN
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD INSULATE
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. NORTHERN VALLEYS COULD
DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET, BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY, TOPOGRAPHY-BASED EDITS WERE LIMITED TO MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE PERIOD.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT LOOKS TO AMPLIFY HEADED INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUITE COLLECTIVELY RESOLVES AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE TWO DISTINCT TROUGHS
DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THAT
EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS ON MONDAY, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND ITS BACKSIDE AND INTO THE VICINITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS, THE PROXIMITY OF THE
BOUNDARY, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY, WPC HAS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK ON MONDAY FOR
COUNTIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE. THANKFULLY, THE IMPULSES
ALOFT WILL SHUNT THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY
EVENING AND PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGIME OF VERTICALLY-
STACKED NORTHERLY FLOW.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN PRODUCED BY THE THREE SYNOPTIC FEATURES DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL
STEADILY BREAK DOWN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HERE IN EASTERN KY, THIS
INITIALLY PLACES US ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OVER NEW ENGLAND, WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE SITUATED
UPSTREAM. THE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF BOTH WILL LEAVE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS MEANS THAT A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IS POISED TO DOMINATE THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY NEXT WEEK.
TOPOGRAPHY-DEPENDENT FORECAST INTRICACIES WILL BE ON DISPLAY NEXT
WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS PROBABLE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER THERE IS
ACCESS TO A MOISTURE SOURCE, BE IT ANTECEDENTLY WET GROUNDS OR A
NEARBY RIVER/CREEK/STREAM. THE EXACT VALUES OF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL MIXING THAT IS
REALIZED. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM USED TO POPULATE THE LONG TERM GRIDS
IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHEN IT COMES
TO DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. DRY AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASINGLY
EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING MAY CULMINATE IN DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S CURRENT DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS. THE CURRENTLY
AVAILABLE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND EXPLICITLY-MIXED SFC->30MB AGL
DEWPOINT MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S ARE PLAUSIBLE IN THIS PATTERN. LIGHT WINDS AND RECENTLY-WET
FUELS SHOULD CURTAIL ANY RESULTANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, SO THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THESE DRIER DEWPOINTS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SHELTERED/SHADED VALLEYS AND THE
FACT THAT IT WILL FEEL FANTASTIC OUTSIDE NEXT WEEK. MAXTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH LREF
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK REMAINING BELOW THE
50% THRESHOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THANKS TO THE LOW MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS, APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EQUIVALENT TO THE SEASONABLY COOL VALUES OBSERVED ON THE
THERMOMETERS. THUS, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, THE MID-WEEK WEATHER
FORECAST LOOKS IDEAL FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT INTERESTS MIGHT
HAVE PLANNED.
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FULLY BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A FLATTENING RIDGE EVENTUALLY SETTLING
INTO THE SE CONUS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RELATED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THESE
SYNOPTICS (THE GFS SUITE WANTS TO KEEP THE EAST COAST TROUGHING
AROUND FOR LONGER), IT SHOULD YIELD A LATE-WEEK WARMING TREND AND A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 80S AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY (60-
80% CHANCE IN THE LATEST LREF DATA), AND WITH THE WARMTH COMES THE
RETURN OF SUMMERTIME POPS. WHILE THE FORECAST DOES NOT CURRENTLY
CALL FOR A WEEK-END WASHOUT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POP-UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER STARTS ON MONDAY, JUNE 1ST,
AND THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST MEETS THE MOMENT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TENNESSEE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO THIN OUT
HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GINNICK
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