352
FXUS63 KJKL 010020 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
820 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY/HIGHWAY 80 LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
CONVECTION NEAR THE TN BORDER HAS WANED TO A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES
FALL FROM WHAT IS LEFT. SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW
THOUGH SOME CONVECTION MAY TEND TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND POPS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RADAR,
SATELLITE, AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
EASTERN KENTUCKY FINDS ITSELF ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500-MB
WEAKENING RIDGE IN AN OVERALL LARGER OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. IN THE
SOUTHEAST, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SITTING IN THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IN NATURE, THOUGH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AT
12Z THIS MORNING, THE BNA SOUNDING MEASURED PWAT OF 1.56 INCHES. AS
OF 18Z THIS AFTERNOON, DEW POINTS IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING TENNESSEE
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED AN AREA EXTENDING FROM SOMERSET EAST TO CORBIN,
BARBOURVILLE, TO PINEVILLE AND AREAS SOUTH, IN A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING. AT
18Z TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY, AND ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER A FEW
MORE HOURS OF PEAK HEATING. LATER TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST, AND TO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THOSE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES. SOME ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER, WITH MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND THE RAP SHOWING
ELEVATED WINDS TOWARDS MORNING, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO KEEP FOG TO
THE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
MONDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (THE EASTERN
LOW IN THE OMEGA PATTERN), RETROGRADING A BIT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LEAD TO FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA, AND A
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE
DAY WILL START WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BEFORE SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS. TOWARDS THE EVENING THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO THE AREA
EFFECTIVELY PUSHING THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE SOUTHEAST, FURTHER
SOUTH. THIS LEADS TO SOME CLEARING SKIES MONDAY EVENING. WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, AND CLEARING SKIES, VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE SHELTERED
HOLLOWS AND VALLEYS, TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG RIDGE TOPS.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP, MAINLY IN MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS,
THOUGH SOME COULD ALSO FORM OUTSIDE THE VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
TUESDAY, AS PATCHY FOG MIXES OUT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST STRENGTHENS AS THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO DROP HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA EXCEPT THE BIG SANDY, WHERE THE RETROGRADING LOW COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST IN TO THE AREA OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST, HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR, LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES,
CALM WINDS AND DRY WEATHER STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. VALLEYS COULD
DECOUPLE HEADING INTO THE EVENING LEADING TO VALLEY TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S; WHILE RIDGE TOPS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP, MOSTLY IN RIVER VALLEYS, BUT
NOT NECESSARILY CONFINED TO THEM.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THROUGH THESE DAYS, DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED, UNDER LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH HEIGHT RISES, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE EVENING WILL ALSO WARM, FROM THE
LOW TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE THURSDAY THIS UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, BREAKING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOWN. GULF MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTH AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
CONVECTION, LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN HAS WANED, AND SEVERAL HOURS
AT LEAST OF VFR SHOULD OCCUR FOR ALL LOCATIONS. AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE AND A BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AT TIMES AFTER 06Z FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A KJKL TO KLOZ LINE. A FEW HOURS OF PROB30 WAS
INCLUDED AT KSME AND KLOZ FOR THAT POTENTIAL BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.
OTHERWISE, VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP IN VALLEYS GENERALLY SOUTH
OF THE MTN PARKWAY THOUGH THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY OF
THE TAF SITES AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10KT OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
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