843
FXUS63 KJKL 010825
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
425 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.
- AFTER A LULL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY
BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY HAS GONE MOSTLY DORMANT OVERNIGHT, BUT MAY
YET SERVE AS A FOCUSING POINT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SPRINKLES NOTED
COMING IN FROM THE BLUEGRASS REGION FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS. IN ADDITION, AREAS OF FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXHIBITING
SOME RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE IN THE NORTHEAST SUCH THAT VALUES
VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN SHELTERED HOLLOWS THERE TO THE MID 60S
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT TO CALM WINDS,
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE LOW AND MID 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ALOFT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THEY ALL DEPICT
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW FOR KENTUCKY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE TODAY WITH SOME WEAK ENERGY PACKETS PASSING
THROUGH. THEN, A FAIRLY STRONG EASTERN TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTHWEST,
IN A RETROGRADING MANNER, INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THIS ACTION BRINGS SOME DECENT 5H HEIGHT FALLS TO THE
JKL CWA ALONG WITH A HEALTHY MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT, THE NBM WAS USED AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE
SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO IMPART THE LATEST CAMS
SOLUTIONS INTO THE POPS AND THUNDER CHANCES ON THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DID ALSO INCLUDE MORE TERRAIN DETAILS FOR HOURLY AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTIONS AND CAVEATS TO THIS
FORECAST INCLUDE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING AND A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA - MOSTLY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR -
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL -
DEPENDENT ON AN ONGOING MCS OVER MISSOURI SUSTAINING ITSELF (OR
SOME MIDDAY REDEVELOPMENT) AND BRUSHING THE SOUTHWEST FRINGE OF
OUR RESPONSIBILITY ON ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE BY
EVENING. LOOK FOR AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
LATER TONIGHT - PERHAPS LIMITED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUD THICKNESS.
TUESDAY WILL SEE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM TO
DEVELOP ON ACCOUNT OF THE WESTERN NODE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA - BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT PRECEDES THIS MORE DYNAMIC 5H
FEATURE AND LACK OF HRRR SUPPORT IN THE 00Z EXTENDED RUN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT MAINLY CONSISTED OF
INCLUDING POP AND THUNDER DETAILS FROM THE LATEST CONSENSUS CAMS
GUIDANCE THROUGH EVENING AND A DIMINISHMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE SAME MODELS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS, THEY
WERE ADJUSTED FOR MORE TERRAIN DETAILS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A BIT OF
EXTRA DRYING EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING WAS TO ADD IN MORE TERRAIN DETAILS EACH NIGHT ON ACCOUNT
OF A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AIR MASS IN PLACE. DID ALSO INCLUDE A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT GIVEN THIS CURRENT WX
REGIME. RIDGING ALOFT STILL LOOKS TO KEEP THINGS DRY AND QUIET
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE RETURN FLOW MOISTURE KICKS
UP CONVECTION CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A VERSION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST STRENGTHENS AS THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO DROP
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
ARE ON TAP - RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE BIG SANDY BASIN, WHERE THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA, HEIGHT RISES
FOLLOW, HELPING TO LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND DRY
WEATHER STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. VALLEYS WILL PROBABLY DECOUPLE
HEADING INTO THE EVENING SENDING VALLEY TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S; WHILE RIDGE TOPS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. PATCHY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THAT NIGHT, MOSTLY IN RIVER
VALLEYS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY CONFINED TO THEM.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME, DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED, AMID LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT,
TEMPERATURES WILL TICK HIGHER THROUGH FRIDAY. AS SUCH, HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S BY
FRIDAY. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL TREND MILDER, AS WELL, FROM THE LOW
TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH MID-WEEK. BY LATE THURSDAY, THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES, BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN. GULF MOISTURE THEN
CREEPS NORTH AROUND AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, REACHING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 80S DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
AN APPROACHING WAVE ALOFT AND A BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING GENERALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A KJKL TO KLOZ LINE -
WITH SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL CONTINUES AFTER DAWN WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE,
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
MTN PARKWAY THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE, THOUGH THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK/GREIF
AVIATION...JP/GREIF
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