114
FXUS63 KJKL 012007
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
407 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.
- AFTER A LULL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 855 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
LEWIS AND MASON COUNTY MESONET STATIONS HAD MEASURABLE PRECIP
EARLY THIS MORNING. IN LIEU OF SPRINKLES, HAVE ADDED 20% POP FOR
THE RADAR RETURNS WHICH ARE PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
DID FINE TUNE THE POPS IN THE NEAR TERM FOR ONGOING VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS AREA
OF PCPN SHOULD DRY UP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THESE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY
BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY HAS GONE MOSTLY DORMANT OVERNIGHT, BUT MAY
YET SERVE AS A FOCUSING POINT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SPRINKLES NOTED
COMING IN FROM THE BLUEGRASS REGION FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS. IN ADDITION, AREAS OF FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXHIBITING
SOME RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE IN THE NORTHEAST SUCH THAT VALUES
VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN SHELTERED HOLLOWS THERE TO THE MID 60S
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT TO CALM WINDS,
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE LOW AND MID 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ALOFT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THEY ALL DEPICT
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW FOR KENTUCKY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE TODAY WITH SOME WEAK ENERGY PACKETS PASSING
THROUGH. THEN, A FAIRLY STRONG EASTERN TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTHWEST,
IN A RETROGRADING MANNER, INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THIS ACTION BRINGS SOME DECENT 5H HEIGHT FALLS TO THE
JKL CWA ALONG WITH A HEALTHY MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT, THE NBM WAS USED AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE
SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO IMPART THE LATEST CAMS
SOLUTIONS INTO THE POPS AND THUNDER CHANCES ON THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DID ALSO INCLUDE MORE TERRAIN DETAILS FOR HOURLY AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTIONS AND CAVEATS TO THIS
FORECAST INCLUDE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING AND A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA - MOSTLY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR -
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL -
DEPENDENT ON AN ONGOING MCS OVER MISSOURI SUSTAINING ITSELF (OR
SOME MIDDAY REDEVELOPMENT) AND BRUSHING THE SOUTHWEST FRINGE OF
OUR RESPONSIBILITY ON ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE BY
EVENING. LOOK FOR AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
LATER TONIGHT - PERHAPS LIMITED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUD THICKNESS.
TUESDAY WILL SEE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM TO
DEVELOP ON ACCOUNT OF THE WESTERN NODE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA - BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT PRECEDES THIS MORE DYNAMIC 5H
FEATURE AND LACK OF HRRR SUPPORT IN THE 00Z EXTENDED RUN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT MAINLY CONSISTED OF
INCLUDING POP AND THUNDER DETAILS FROM THE LATEST CONSENSUS CAMS
GUIDANCE THROUGH EVENING AND A DIMINISHMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE SAME MODELS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS, THEY
WERE ADJUSTED FOR MORE TERRAIN DETAILS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A BIT OF
EXTRA DRYING EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
THE PERIOD OPENS IN THE MIDST OF THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE
PREVIOUS BLOCKING PATTERN. AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES
OFF THE EAST COAST, HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD, LEAVING EASTERN
KENTUCKY TEMPORARILY BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY; THUS, DRIER AIR
WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA, AND WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
OWING TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COURTESY OF CLEAR SKIES, HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
IMPACTS, THURSDAYS WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR, ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES (LOW TO MID 80S) AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST AND HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ALOFT. MEANWHILE,
THE SURFACE HIGHS PROGRESSION SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES,
INITIATING MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, ALTHOUGH THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THE PRIMARY
DEVIATION FROM NBM OUTPUT WAS TO ADD ADDITIONAL TERRAIN INFLUENCES
IN THE AREA, WITH A MODEST RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT LIKELY
OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE NBM RUNNING
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR RIDGES AND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
VALLEYS, HOURLY AND LOW TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
EVEN SO, DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S WILL PROVIDE A REASONABLE
FLOOR FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN SHELTERED VALLEYS, AND
THEREFORE MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS CAN EXPECT FOG ON THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH PERSISTING CLEAR SKIES, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
APPROACH DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HINTING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR VALLEY FOG IN PRONE AREAS.
ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER
SOUTHEAST, BUT WE SHOULD GET ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
BE FIRMLY IN THE 80S, BUT WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST, MOISTURE
RETURN WILL CONTINUE. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S OR PERHAPS EVEN
THE 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
QUASI-ZONAL, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
AREA STARTING ON SATURDAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE DEFINED SYNOPTIC
FORCING, RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY LOW ON SATURDAY, BUT
BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN
CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL PUSH EASTWARD. CONCURRENTLY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALSO BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD, WITH A
BROAD AREA OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. ACCORDINGLY, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY.
WHILE THE DETAILS OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE NOT FULLY
RESOLVABLE AT THIS TIME, A SHIFT TOWARDS A MARGINALLY WETTER
PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY GOING INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
AN APPROACHING WAVE ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A SFC BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY - WITH SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THEN RETURNS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF THE AVIATION FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, ANY AREAS OF VALLEY FOG WILL
CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BUT THEN REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT - ALL NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF TERMINAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GREIF
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